Race-by-race preview and tips for Kembla on Thursday

Track Good 4 and rail out 6m from 1100m to WP and 3m the remainder.

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1600m)

The maidens get us rolling over the mile, and progressive metro three-year-old 3. Ten Downing Street is the one to beat at his third start. Worked home OK from the second half of the field over the same distance a fortnight ago, and hits peak fitness now getting on to a suitably bigger track from a soft draw.

Dangers: Big market watch on 1. Devon County resuming over this longer trip. Has been fitted with two trials up to 1200m, and is bred to run out a strong staying journey. Improving 5. Nicodemus has found the line well in two runs since switching from Victoria, and gets a nice drop in weight. Gap to the rest headed by 7. Prince Of Arendell who also sneaks down in weight fourth-up.

How to play it: Ten Downing Street to win

Race 2 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1300m)

Like progressive metro filly 10. Rock Girls at her second start, with important gear changes. Closed off well at Canterbury on debut after tracking up from midfield, and will enjoy the extra furlong here on a bigger course being sired by Pierro out of the good race mare Rock. The early market fancy too has been preferred at Canterbury on Wednesday.

Dangers: Keep safe another one by Pierro, 1. Avonview on debut from the inside draw behind two trials, while 6. Prince Of Wales third-up, and 9. River Tamar who resumes from a soft draw off two solid trials, both go in trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Rock Girls to win

Race 3 4YO & UP MAIDEN HCP (1300m)

Same distance for the older maidens, although most are lightly raced, and they’re all chasing four-year-old 7. Densaur who is ideally placed on his home track second-up. Was well backed before working home OK in a handy country maiden, doing a tonne of work from the wide barrier and coming off a lengthy break. Drops down to the limit weight for the rise to provincial company, and gets a much better run in transit just off the speed.

Dangers: Not many, although provincial-based 2. Windmill Road by 2013 Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente must be kept safe despite debuting as a six-year-old. Has progressed nicely at the trials, winning the latest over 1000m, and the third horse then came out and roared home to win fresh at Tuesday’s Newcastle meeting at massive odds. Track the betting on 4. Shaggy Boy who hasn’t fired a shot in two runs so far, but better suited here, while 5. Essentia first-up heads the rest returning for her first run since late March.

How to play it: Densaur to win

Race 4 2YO MAIDEN HCP (1300m)

The babies let rip now, and in a tough assessment, keen on Trapeze Artist gelding 7. Saroyan who peaks third-up over 100m further for the Snowden camp at Randwick. Worked home from an outside trail to be beaten a long neck a fortnight ago, and fitter now getting on to a bigger circuit are key plusses.

Dangers: Big watch on Exceed And Excel colt 4. House Of Cards who did his best work late from the back on debut at the Kensington track when backed in from an each-way price, and should progress nicely here. Improving 1. Andronicus finished hard from the back on debut at Newcastle, and is over the odds here with winkers being added. Similarly, 2. Supreme Command looks good value off a tough second start run at Gosford, while 6. Mr Caleb resumes for a second prep behind two improving trials.

How to play it: Saroyan to win

Race 5 PROVINCIAL CLASS 1 HCP (1400m)

Progressive home track three-year-old 2. C’mon Mate can make it two wins from three this prep for an underrated yard. Tracked the speed before sweeping home best here when resuming, then wasn’t really in the best part of the track when working home OK last time.

Dangers: Tough three-year-old 3. Skylight Song has been up for a long time, but still bursting to win a second race at his 14th start. Has finished well into a place in his last three at Wyong, and from an even softer draw here over a touch further, won’t get a better chance to break that wait since switching provincial stables. Respect for local 4. Slickman on the seven-day back-up after settling way too far back here second-up, and gets in with a light weight after the jockey’s claim. Both 1. Modern Millie second-up with a 3kg claim off-setting the weight, and 8. Karaoke King third-up with a gear change, can run into the minor money.

How to play it: C’mon Mate to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1400m)

Nearly always tougher and open affairs around this grade, but no runner is better placed than metro three-year-old 1. Pennypacker third-up. Hit the line into a place here when resuming before surging home late in a deeper race at Canterbury 15 days ago. Should park a little closer here from a more economical draw, and looks very fairly treated under 59kg back in provincial company.

Dangers: Good value second-up is 3. Oakfield Prince who draws the fence with blinkers back on, and afforded a 4kg weight drop stepping up from country opposition. At bigger odds, 2. Xcited resuming behind two progressive trials, 8. Golden Gate dropping down from stronger city grade but drawn off the track, and 11. Deni Gal also down sharply in class, can all add value into trifecta and first four returns.

How to play it: Pennypacker to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1200m)

A stack of chances in this one headed by talented metro three-year-old 2. Pure Hydrogen who can run a big race fresh. Won two from five last prep in dominant fashion up to country CL1 level, and roared home from the back here against similar opposition before spelling. Has been fitted with two easy city trials, and given any sort of cover in the race, he can produce a superior final 400m burst.

Dangers: Tough 1. Fangela hasn’t started for 33 weeks, bur normally comes to hand early in the prep, and has built a 45 per cent winning strike rate from only 13 starts. Improving 11. Announcing can peak third-up after working home well in two provincial runs this prep. Keep safe at very big odds 3. Tulla Park who has been running home hard in thinner country races, and will relish the long straight here, while 7. Impact Star has drawn inside deep into his prep and is also over the odds.

How to play it: Pure Hydrogen to win

Race 8 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1600m)

Same grade of galloper over the mile to finish, and potentially it’s even more open. Like progressive metro mare 10. Silk Tie fourth-up and settling back over a shade further. Worked home nicely in deeper city company last start behind a short-priced and dominant winner, and back on to a much bigger circuit carrying the same weight is just the ticket for her to win a fourth time at his 17th attempt.

Dangers: Keep safe home tracker 4. Moorestown who draws wide, but is building a nice record, and there was plenty like about his last-start win in similar provincial company. Honest four-year-old 5. Edge Of Reward is a mile over the odds fourth-up coming off a dominant barrier-to-box win in a handy country CL1. Improving local mare 7. Nautical Miss is capable of running into the minor money from a soft cover draw, while exotic players must include home tracker and last start provincial CL1 winner 12. Satness, and lightly raced mare 13. Condrieu second-up.

How to play it: Silk Tie to win

BEST BETS: R3 7. DENSAUR, R6 1. PENNYPACKER

BEST VALUE: R5 2. C’MON MATE

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