Race-by-race preview and tips for Rosehill on Saturday

8. Two Up will be strong at the end of 1200m, maps to camp just off the speed and comes back a peg from what he raced last start at Canterbury when third behind Samoot. It’s an appealing set up for the David Atkins-trained gelding. He has been an extremely consistent sprinter for some time now. The five-year-old has relished soft and heavy tracks throughout his career, so that won’t see him beaten here. 4. Dalaalaat looks beautifully placed here first up, and he won a Midway fresh last preparation over 1200m, but he maps to be giving away a big start from the draw. This is his kick-off point for of a Provincial-Midway Championships tilt. 11. Bob’s Your Uncle faces a similarly problematic draw but has more talent than strike rate suggests.
How to play it: Two Up WIN.

2. She’s Extreme took a couple of hundred metres to find her feet in the heavy 10 conditions in the Sweet Embrace a fortnight ago but really powered to the line the last 200m. That was her second career start having run an eye-catching, and luckless, fourth in a Kensington maiden on debut. That was a hot maiden that has subsequently produced the Reisling quinella in Seven Veils and Dashing Legend. Her dam won out to 2000m, so it’s no surprise to see her so strong at the end of the sprint trips. Wouldn’t be surprised if she was ridden more aggressively now third up with a place in the Golden Slipper on the line. 10. Swift Sweet ran fifth at Canterbury first up but it was an enormous effort from this Mark Newnham-trained filly to get as close as she did at the finish.
How to play it: She’s Extreme WIN.

Nobody missed the debut of 3. Magic in the Silver Slipper Stakes behind Best Of Bordeaux. The colt really flattened out late to charge into second place, clocking a last 600m split of 34.19s, which was three lengths faster than the next best in the race. His last 200m section of 11.60 was alone 2 lengths quicker than the second quickest. A glance at his pedigree will tell you he’s out of brilliant staying Kiwi mare Rising Romance, so it’s little surprise that the best part of his race over 1100m was his close. The low draw gives him the chance to be a couple of pairs closer out to 1200m, and it’s hard to see any of his rivals matching him late if he reproduces a similar finish. 2. Rise Of The Masses boxed on well out to 1200m on a heavy track in the Skyline.
How to play it: Magic WIN.

This race looks a near identical set-up to the Liverpool City Cup for
1. Ellsberg. Another heavy track, another race where he maps to get complete control. We do swap Randwick for Rosehill and 1300m for 1500m, but the four-year-old has historically been even better on his home track (6:3-2-0) and he is 4:2-1-0 over this trip. Tim Clark has ridden Ellsberg seven times for three wins and three seconds. The only possible knock on the odds-on favourite (a price which looks justified) is that his second-up form has tapered off in the past compared to his fresh form. 2. Brutality is much better suited out to 1500m but has three lengths to make up on Ellsberg. He’ll close that margin, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where there is enough tempo for Brutality to turn the tables.
How to play it: Ellsberg WIN.

2. Rule Of Law chases six wins in a row! It’s been well documented what this sprinter has become since being gelded and trained by Bjorn Baker but, every time the bar has been raised, he jumps it. The four-year-old transitions into group racing for the first time having won a BM94 last start, but he’s still entitled to be a very firm favourite. He has been up since December, but we can only judge him on what we’ve seen on the track and he has shown no signs of training off. The box he does have to tick here, however, is the heavy track.
Can 9. Shelby Sixtysix repeat what he did last Saturday behind Eduardo? If he does, he’ll win. It’s impossible to be confident that he’ll ever reach those heights again, let alone at his very next start.
How to play it: Rule Of Law WIN.

It’s well known that Chris Waller has completely owned this race recently, winning six of the past seven, and with some of the best fillies we’ve seen in recent years. Enter 11. Fangirl. The daughter of Sebring has emerged as the stable’s top-seeded filly over the autumn, having beaten Espiona in the Light Fingers before the wide gate cost her any chance in the G1 Surround Stakes. The best win of her career to date was a demolition of her rivals out to the mile at the end of the spring, so she’ll only get stronger as she creeps out to that trip again this carnival. Stablemate 12. Roots was unlucky behind Fangirl in the Reginald Allen last preparation. She resumed with a brilliant win over an unsuitable 1200m in midweek company at Warwick Farm.
How to play it: Fangirl WIN.

5. Stockman ran last two weeks ago but it was in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes at weight for age. His 400-200m split was the fourth quickest in the race before his condition gave out and the class of his rivals kicked in. The stayer was seven weeks between runs, and that will top him off for 2000m second up on another heavy track. There are a lot of backmarkers engaged here, so it should present Sam Clipperton with the chance to settle down midfield. 1. Great House looks well treated under the weight scale given he lumped 59kg first up when fourth in the Parramatta Cup. He gets a 5.5kg swing on stablemate 7. Toomuchtobear. 2. Spirit Ridge has just been touched off first up over 2000m in his last two preparations.
How to play it: Stockman WIN.

4. Lighthouse has run in two weight for age G1s at her last two starts and finished second in both. Coming back to a handicap now is an appealing set-up. As is the seven-day back-up. The five-year-old grey doesn’t look too badly treated with 56kg either. In the last five runnings of this race, the lightest weighted winner has been 55kg. The classy mares have been winning despite giving away weight to the three-year-olds and lesser performed types. Have got her camped one out one back and all she has to do from there is repeat what she did last Saturday. 6. Expat has won seven of her 10 starts on soft and heavy ground. She is chasing three straight wins having won a deep Millie Fox three weeks ago in which two impressive subsequent winner Belluci Babe and Le Lude have emerged.
How to play it: Lighthouse WIN.

11. Taksu chased home Gravina first up at Randwick, ploughing through the heavy conditions. He comfortably beat the rest of the field on that occasion and sets up nicely now out to 1300m second up on another wet track carrying another very light weight after the claim. The other huge advantage this former Victorian-trained gelding has is the lack of speed in the race, at least on paper. That should see Schiller assume control from the front. We’ve been waiting a while for 14. Sindacato to step out for Chris Waller. He’s been scratched a couple of times and had meetings cancelled due to the weather, but there’s every chance it’ll be worth the wait. The former Kiwi is a lightly raced six-year-old not short on talent.
How to play it: Takso WIN.

16. Forever You is a staying mare with it all still in front of her. She leaps into Saturday class on the back of a C1 win at Newcastle at set weights where she was a $1.20 favourite but won in the style of a galloper that warrants a crack in town. That was five weeks ago and over 2350m, but she was just as dominant the start prior at Kembla Grange over 2000m. The lightly raced four-year-old with just four starts to her name drops to 52kg in BM78 company. Jay Ford should be able to park her midfield from the middle draw before letting her work through her gears. She does take a couple of strides to get going, so the barrier looks ideal and, with 2. Canasta and 12. Zoumon ensuring a genuine tempo up front, she’ll get her chance to make an immediate impression in this grade.
How to play it: Forever You WIN.

Tips supplied by Racing NSW.
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.

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