Allison Hanes: It's Decision Day in Quebec

A civics lesson, some mathematical equations and a pep talk.

That’s what you’re getting from me this fine Monday morning, Decision Day in Quebec’s 43rd general election.

The campaign is over, the speeches are done, and the only poll that matters now is the one that will be tabulated tonight, starting at 8 p.m. It’s voters’ turn to choose our government for the next four years. I’d never tell you how to vote, but I am going to tell you to go out and vote.

It’s your right, after all. Do you really want to take it for granted?

Democracy is more fragile than you think. Last week, armed guards went door to door in four occupied regions of Ukraine to force people to vote at gunpoint in a hastily organized referendum on joining Russia. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin used the sham results to illegally annex Ukrainian territory. Closer to home, former U.S. president Donald Trump’s refusal to concede his 2020 loss led a mob to storm the Capitol, almost pulling off a coup in what is supposedly the world’s strongest democracy.

There are lots of reasons to stay home, sure. Maybe you’ve got other stuff to do. Maybe you think it won’t make a difference. Or maybe some of the political parties are counting on you not to care. Did you ever think of it that way? This is your chance to prove them wrong.

According to Elections Quebec, the highest turnout for a provincial election was 85.2 per cent in 1976, when the Parti Québécois, led by René Lévesque, was propelled to victory for the first time.

Since 1931, the participation rate for Quebec elections has usually exceeded 70 per cent, with those held during the Quiet Revolution and prior to the two sovereignty referendums in 1980 and 1995 seeing more than 80 per cent of eligible voters head to the polls.

The big exception was 2008, when the rate dipped to 57 per cent in the election that handed Jean Charest’s Liberals a third mandate after a brief stint as a minority government. The second-worst turnout over the better part of the past century was 2018, when only 66.4 per cent of eligible Quebecers cast ballots and put François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec in office for the first time.

Why did so many voters stay home last time around? In part, a shift of the paradigm away from the old sovereignist-federalist dynamic may have lowered the stakes. So many elections in the last 50 years felt like a decision on Quebec’s future in Canada. For the first time in a long while, separation was not the ballot question, perhaps leaving people with the sense that voting was less urgent.

Some Quebecers — including many anglophones, immigrants and minorities — may also have felt their support was taken for granted.

People may still feel that way now — or perhaps even more so. But the last four years have shown that sovereignty doesn’t have to be on the table for Quebec to undergo transformative change. So would you rather sit on the sidelines or have your say?

Despite what polls may project, the results are never preordained. Surprises can happen. Upsets occur. Just as important as choosing a government is electing an effective opposition to hold those in power to account.

The breaking of the old yes-no logjam has yielded a range of new options. There are five major parties vying for seats and several smaller ones running candidates in a handful of ridings.

There is the incumbent CAQ, the Quebec Liberal Party, Québec solidaire, the Parti Québécois and the Conservative Party of Quebec, not to mention the upstart Canadian Party of Quebec, Bloc Montréal and the Parti Vert du Québec. All have articulated vastly different visions.

With so many options, the number of votes needed to claim a seat in the National Assembly now may be lower in our first-past-the-post system. In ridings with extremely tight races, every X will count and each ballot may carry more weight than it usually does, given the potential for vote splitting.

Older voters reliably go to the polls in great number. But younger voters can and have made a difference when engaged and inspired.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals were propelled to victory in 2015 largely thanks to an unexpected surge in the youth vote. Ballots cast by Canadians age 18 to 24 jumped 18.3 percentage points to 57 per cent, up from 38 in 2011 — the largest increase since Elections Canada started keeping records. Similarly, participation by voters age 25 to 34 increased by 12.3 percentage points to 57 per cent, from 45 per cent in the previous election. Older Canadians still had the highest turnout, but in 2015 young people flexed their muscle.

This is the math part of why voting is important. But there’s also the emotional component tied to doing our democratic duty.

People tend to vote when they feel there is something at stake. Well, the whole planet is at stake. The next four years will be critical in the fight against climate change — in Quebec as elsewhere. By the time the next election rolls around in 2026, we’ll be most of the way toward 2030, the year so many targets for reducing emissions and commitments on the road to carbon neutrality hang on. The clock is ticking on humanity’s ability to address this existential threat.

Shoring up a crumbling health system, ensuring every Quebecer has a family doctor, rebuilding deteriorating schools, reconciling with Indigenous Peoples, respecting minority rights, access to English-language health and social services, access to mental health care, dealing with the labour shortage, being able to afford a roof over your head — being able to afford groceries, for that matter — are all urgent reasons to vote, too. Take your pick.

Without question, there is palpable anger and resentment toward political leaders of various stripes for things they have done and said — as for things they have not done and said — both during the campaign and before.

But the only way to let them know what you think is to go out and vote. It doesn’t mean you’ll get the result you want, but it does send the message you won’t be ignored.

ahanes@postmedia.com

1. Everything you need to know about Quebec's Oct. 3 election

2. Editorial: Why it's important to vote in the Quebec election