Analysis: François Legault wraps up bumpy campaign by saying he wants to govern for all

SHERBROOKE — Should he win Monday’s election, François Legault says he will govern for all its citizens and hopes to woo anglophones into showing more interest in protecting French.

Wrapping up his campaign in the Eastern Townships, Legault repeated he is taking nothing for granted and hopes for good news in all the 125 ridings of Quebec, including on the Island of Montreal, where the Coalition Avenir Québec holds only two seats.

“It will be up to Quebecers to choose tomorrow,” Legault said, standing in a parking lot outside a Sherbrooke pizzeria. “We’ll see tomorrow night, but we will do our best to get more ridings in Montreal.”

With the prospect of winning even more seats than the CAQ already has (76) — and a new Léger poll Sunday points to that — the question Legault faces is how much power is too much power and how does he heal the wounds caused by the 36-day campaign.

Legault reached out.

“I think it will be important to work all together because we have great, great, great challenges in the next few years regarding the environment, regarding the economy, regarding education, regarding protection of French,” Legault said.

“I would like for us to do that together, to protect French and stop seeing the percentage of francophones dropping in Quebec.”

He offered an olive branch to the English-speaking community that appears estranged from the CAQ in the wake of such unpopular pieces of legislation as Bill 21 on state secularism and Bill 96 overhauling the Charter of the French Language.

“I think we need to do that together,” Legault said. “I think we all have to be proud of the distinct society we have in Quebec, the way we live together, including the anglophones, including the women on our team. We will do more to bring people together.

“It was my objective when I founded the CAQ: take the best Liberals, the best péquistes, the best sovereignists and the best federalists and put them on the same team.

“My objective is to rally people together,” Legault said. “What we need to do is develop Quebec with anglophones, with new arrivals, with francophones and everyone.”

His last day was also focused on the role of women in his government. To that end, he held a rally in a pizzeria attended by 44 of the CAQ’s female candidates. Overall, 66 of the 125 CAQ candidates in this race — 55 per cent — are women.

The rally took place in Sherbrooke, currently held by Québec solidaire incumbent Christine Labrie, who fought a hardscrabble race in 2018 to take away Jean Charest’s old home riding from the Liberals.

“My ambition is that we make history with the most number of women in the National Assembly,” Legault said, opening the rally.

In 2018, 53 women won seats in the legislature, which represents 42.4 per cent of the 125.

The CAQ candidate in Sherbrooke is former Longueuil mayor Caroline St-Hilaire, who made her own pitch for more clout.

“We need to be more numerous in the National Assembly, but also at the decision-making table,” St-Hilaire told the crowd as Legault, who has ultimate say over who is in his cabinet, listened.

Later, at his news conference, Legault said his goal, as it was in 2018, is to form a cabinet comprised of between 40 and 60 per cent women, what he calls a “parity zone.”

He was wary of make specific predictions for the vote Monday, but did say he expected closes races in the South Shore riding of Laporte and Verdun. Both ridings have been Liberal for years.

Another Liberal riding being hotly contests is Maurice-Richard (formerly Crémazie), which is where Legault started his day. The Liberals narrowly won the riding in 2018 with candidate Marie Montpetit, but now all the other parties are chasing it because Montpetit is not running in this election.

Legault arrived at a Ahuntsic breakfast spot with a smile on his face.

“We’re on a roll,” he told the crowd.

Legault ends his campaign in much the same situation as he started: leading in the polls and apparently headed for a landslide victory Monday.

The final election poll, produced by Léger for the Journal de Montréal, pegged CAQ support at 37 per cent and the opposition parties trailing far behind in its dust. Support for the Liberals is 17 per cent, followed by Québec solidaire and the Parti Québécois with 15 per cent each.

Last is the Conservative Party of Quebec with 14 per cent support.

The poll notes the only opposition party to make gains as a result of the campaign was the PQ, which ends the race six percentage points higher than when it started. For the rest, it is more or less status quo despite five weeks of wooing voters in all 17 regions of Quebec.

The poll shows the CAQ has managed to stabilize its support despite what some analysts feel was a clumsy campaign with a leader who sometimes looked like he wanted to be anywhere else except seeking re-election.

That was not quite part of the plan. Riding high in the polls and with its opponents sufficiently divided to pose little threat, the CAQ started the race in the driver’s seat, which, in Quebec elections, means holding the support of the majority of francophone voters who decide who will govern Quebec.

That’s because that francophone vote is scattered in rural, off-island ridings representing many seats in the National Assembly. The Liberal vote is concentrated in Montreal, which represents fewer total ridings. To win enough seats in the legislature to form a majority government you need 63 seats.

Legault started the campaign with 76 seats.

Strolling up the street on a sunny Sunday morning on Aug. 28 to ask the lieutenant-governor to dissolve the house, Legault had a spring in his step, the look of a politicians at the peak of his game at age 65. Analysts say regardless of the outcome Monday, Legault has left his mark on Quebec.

He boasted he had by far the best team, including top economic players to handle any future recession. His health minister, Christian Dubé, was so good Legault took the unusual step of saying at mid-campaign that Dubé would keep the portfolio in a future cabinet.

The campaign theme was simple: “Let’s continue,” what was started in 2018. In other words, more prosperity and nationalism and the continued protection of the French language and culture.

But Legault hit turbulence.

After a first week of announcing the details of his new “inflation shield,” to help Quebecers cope with the increased cost of living, the campaign seemed to lose its focus. There were the first signs Legault was not a happy camper, fed up with having to answer questions about such proposals as a planned tunnel between Quebec City and Lévis, and immigration.

Analysts have said it was Legault’s own missteps and lack of clarity on these two subjects that fuelled the media questions. Journal de Montreal columnist Antoine Robitaille noted Saturday the paradox is while Legault seems obsessed with immigration he does not seem to master the finer details of it.

By the first TVA debate Sept. 15, Legault’s body language told the story. Suddenly, the “keep calm and carry on,” theme the CAQ wanted to sell seemed fuzzy.

He grew at times testy with reporters and, by the last two weeks, had curbed his media encounters from two a day to one.

“It’s spin,” Legault said Saturday campaigning in Chibougamau when asked if he was in a bad mood. “I’m as happy as in 2018.”

On the other hand, 2018 was a different sort of campaign where he was the one hurling the mud at the worn-out Liberals and tapping into voter’s desire to end 50 years of federalism-sovereignty debate.

History also shows it’s not easy for a sitting government to obtain a second mandate in contemporary Quebec given the fickle nature of Quebec voters. Pauline Marois failed in 2014. So did Philippe Couillard in 2018.

Since Legault has already voted in Montreal, he will hold his election night rally in Quebec City.

pauthier@postmedia.com

twitter.com/philipauthier