Ron DeSantis has all the charm of a porcelain dinner plate. But he has the means to take on the frontrunner. And he comes with far less drama than Trump.
The Republicans and Democrats have a deal to lift the debt ceiling — avoiding the prospect of the United States defaulting on its debt — and Ron DeSantis roundly denounces it. With that, the curious race for the Republican presidential nomination becomes more curious.
Americans may be forgiven for ignoring the melodrama in Washington over “the faith and credit” of the country if it runs out of cash to pay its bills. But like so many things in politics, the debt ceiling is a proxy for something else, in this case the cultural wars. For DeSantis, in particular, it’s an early, showy way to differentiate himself from Donald Trump.
DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is running to the right of Trump, opposing abortion and flaying “leftists.” Trump had opposed a debt ceiling deal but hasn’t commented since Biden and Kevin McCarthy, speaker of the House, came to a tentative agreement (Congress must still approve it) last weekend.
Trump, a nihilist, instinctively rejects any agreement with the Democrats, because he won’t give Biden a bipartisan victory. But as of early Wednesday, he had not yet broken with McCarthy on the debt issue — not that he won’t.
One reason is Trump is unfazed by debt. The national debt rose from $670 billion U.S. in 2017, his first year as president, to $3.3 trillion U.S. in 2020, his last year, albeit inflated by pandemic spending.
When he pushed through tax cuts in 2017, for example, Trump knew what raising less revenue would do. Then again, as we know, deficits only seem to matter to Republicans when they are in opposition attacking “profligate” Democrats. Not when they are in power, extending tax breaks to the wealthy and showering money on national defence, the biggest budgetary expenditure.
DeSantis is happy to align himself with the Freedom Caucus, the fiercely conservative coterie of House Republicans who oppose the deal because it doesn’t severely reduce entitlement programs such as food stamps or abolish measures to create a green economy. Knowing he cannot please his fellow Republicans, McCarthy is counting on the votes of centrist Democrats in an evenly divided House to raise the debt limit for another two years, safely beyond the 2024 presidential election.
But this isn’t about the debt limit, the least sexy of issues. It’s a way for DeSantis to appeal to Republicans bound to Trump. It says to them: Hey, with me, you get a real conservative who fought Disney, trashed the libs in Florida and still won re-election handily. And who comes, unlike Trump, with no drama.
The new conventional wisdom — in contrast, say, to last November — is that Trump has sewn up the party nomination. Much as DeSantis has money, key endorsements, a more conservative record and high name recognition, his popularity has tumbled. His fumbled campaign announcement on Twitter last week didn’t help.
This is now the narrative in Washington, but reader beware: There is a long history in American politics of unlikely or unknown candidates catching a wave and winning the nomination (though not always the presidency).
Among Democrats, remember George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1992 and Barack Obama in 2008. Among Republicans remember Barry Goldwater in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1968 and Trump in 2016.
So the chattering class says DeSantis is finished because Trump will triumph in a large field that includes GOP royalty such as Mike Pence, Nikki Haley and Tim Scott.
The reasoning is Trump has the firm support of one-third or so of Republicans, while the anti-Trump vote will fragment enough to allow him to win with a plurality. It worked for him in 2016.
DeSantis is mean-spirited and humourless, with the charm of a porcelain dinner plate. He’s certainly less entertaining than Trump. But DeSantis has the means to challenge him, which could happen with a good showing in conservative Iowa. If he can present himself as an alternative as Trump’s legal troubles mount, which they will, Republicans may find DeSantis a safer bet.
If so, historically, Trump would not be the first frontrunner to fall.
Andrew Cohen is a journalist, a professor at Carleton University and author of Two Days in June: John F. Kennedy and the 48 Hour That Made History.