COVID-19 increase in U.K. a bad sign for Canada

Reports from the U.K. suggest another COVID-19 wave has begun. 

Canadians should take note as what happens with the pandemic in the U.K. is usually reflected here within several weeks.

Ontario entered a 7th wave in July that was driven by the Omicron BA.5 subvariant, according to Ontario Chief Medical Officer Dr. Kieran Moore.

The wave began about a month after public health measures such as masking were ended.

Without regular testing, it was difficult to get hard data, but wastewater surveillance showed rising numbers and the science table noted higher COVID hospitalizations this past summer than at any time in the summer of 2021.

This wave followed similar waves in Europe and the UK.

Given that this rise came in summer (when people are outdoors), there is concern Canadians might face a difficult fall and winter as COVID increases when people spend more time inside.

If the U.K. can be considered a precursor to what Canadians will face, a difficult fall is on the horizon. Cases started rising in the U.K. in mid-September.

New variants are said to be able to evade the immunity built up by vaccinations and infections.

The Daily Mail reported that a drop in testing combined with the inadequate surveillance of new immune-evasive subvariants will create a “perfect storm” for another wave.

After hospitalizations rose by 37% in the past week alone, U.K. health experts began calling for mask-wearing and urging COVID vaccinations, according to the Guardian.

The surge in COVID hospitalizations has been connected to at least eight British hospitals declaring cancelled operations and asking people not to come to the emergency department unless they were seriously ill last week.

As in Canada, the U.K. is dealing with staff shortages and an overwhelmed health system.

At the end of September, Britons were urged to get both flu vaccines and a COVID booster over fears of a winter “twindemic.”

COVID restrictions such as masking, distancing and isolation kept the flu at low levels — here and in the U.K. — and with those restrictions gone, there are fears we’ll see a resurgence of influenza this winter.

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Dr. Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser at U.K. Health Security Agency, told the Guardian, “there are strong indications we could be facing the threat of widely circulating flu, lower levels of natural immunity due to less exposure over the last three winters, and an increase in COVID-19 circulating with lots of variants that can evade the immune response.

“This combination poses a serious risk to our health, particularly those in high-risk groups.”

Here in Ontario, a “gradual increase” in COVID case numbers was observed at the end of September. 

Many Canadians have noted the U.K. rise in COVID numbers, with #covidisnotover trending on Twitter Monday.