COVID evolution depends on new variants, immunity: INSPQ

Majority of Quebec citizens are hybrids to COVID-19 We have immunity, but this fall's new variant could cause a spike in cases and hospitalizations, and could have a bigger impact than Omicron if the variant escapes hybrid immunity.

This was reviewed Thursday by the Quebec National and Public Institute of Science, by its experts and experts from the Laval University study group on mathematical models and health, Greater Montreal. emphasized in the hypothetical scenario of Economics related to infectious diseases.

According to INSPQ, the evolution of COVID-19 not only depends on the maintenance of hybrid immunity, but also on the characteristics of potential new variants. Increases in cases and hospitalizations by winter 2023 may be 'limited' if hybrid immunity still blocks the emergence of new variants.

However, the same way Omicron escaped Delta-acquired immunity, new variants that escape hybrid immunity cause a much larger surge, to the point of surpassing that of Omicron's wave. It's possible, he told INSPQ on Thursday.

"Even if the variant is less severe than Omicron and the protection offered by hybrid immunity is high against hospitalization, a significant number of hospitalizations may occur.

The analysis points to three key factors that have emerged from the pandemics of the past two years. People who have both been vaccinated and infected with COVID-19 (hybrid immunity) benefit from greater protection. Past waves are caused by new subspecies.

INSPQ highlights how the virus continues to mutate, leaving Quebec unprotected from new variants that are highly contagious or escape various types of immunity. .

Scenarios developed through modeling were run to support the agency's work to predict the long-term evolution of the pandemic in Quebec.

"It is currently impossible to predict when a new subspecies may arrive in Quebec and what its characteristics will be," says Laval University. Research group director Mark Brisson said. 

Brisson, meanwhile, said that learning that Omicron and its variants were highly contagious but less severe caused a paradigm shift within the pandemic.

Also, given uncertainties regarding the efficiency of new bivalent vaccines and the characterization of potential new variants, the model estimates the optimal time to obtain booster doses for COVID-19. It is also pointed out that this is not possible.

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