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London — On According to the Estonian government, a Russian border guard Mi-8 helicopter entered Estonian airspace on Saturday night, flew over NATO territory for two minutes, and then re-entered Russia.
In the eastern Donbus region of Ukraine, the bloodiest battles to date continue, with hundreds of Ukrainian and Russian troops dying in cannons, tanks and city battles every day.
But the wider chessboard of global conflict continues to grow.
This includes allegations of a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil refinery in Russia on Wednesday, a ban on the transportation of major industrial materials by Lithuania to Russia's outlying areas of Kaliningrad, and Ukraine's accession to the EU. The story, including the ever-growing battle for the global mind, mind, food and fuel supply.
Rhetoric and activities around the Baltic States pose new dangers in particular. Along with Poland, the former Soviet Republic of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are the strongest supporters of Ukraine, most worried that the Kremlin may target them once the current war is over or settled. I pushed a tough line.
After the February 24 invasion, the United States and its allies sent additional troops to the Baltic Sea, but NATO jets were used by Russia to approach NATO's airspace. I scrambled several times a week to intercept the aircraft. Most of such actions take place offshore. Direct flights over Russia over NATO's land areas, as reported on Saturday in the Southeastern Koydra region of Estonia, are relatively rare. Estonia immediately protested and summoned a Russian ambassador.
On Wednesday, Russia summoned an EU ambassador to the Kremlin to protest a ban on shipping Lithuania across the territory of sanctions to Kaliningrad, a Russian port surrounded by land by Poland and Lithuania. did. Russian officials have long seen a potential flash point between NATO and Moscow, but have denounced attempts to "economically strangle" the port.
This week, Russia's TV talk show accuses the United States and Britain of fostering conflict and pressures Baltic countries to open a "second front" and distract Russia from Ukraine. I put it on.
Supply Battle
Lithuania's inclusion of steel and steel materials in the latest round of EU sanctions prevents transportation to Kaliningrad, which used rail links until the invasion From Lithuania to Belarus, as the main supply line, including supplying weapons to Russian troops.
EU officials are pushing for a slightly different policy, spokesman Eric Manner said Lithuania is obliged to carry out a "proportional check", other officials said metal is Russia. And to Russia's "internal market" in Kaliningrad, which suggests that passage should be allowed if passing from the free trade area of Belarus.
If the EU begins to push this policy further, whether Lithuania will retreat is another matter. All expressions of EU support and solidarity with Ukraine, including talks of accession, especially Germany and France, are seen as keen to maintain an opportunity to ease tensions with Moscow.
Reportedly, other goods and passengers are still allowed to pass, but Lithuanian media outlets said the Russian media "Hysteria" was that Moscow made the incident a military attack and other Warned that it could be a sign that could be used to justify action. For more NATO troops to be permanently stationed in its territory.
Russia has expanded its military activities in the region since Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership, and some Baltic military experts include maritime and aviation activities. Some have stated that it could be further enhanced. Some Russian experts have suggested that Lithuanian authorities have discussed such a proposal, but Russia may begin a complete closure of the port of Klaipeda in Lithuania.
Russian media has proposed removing Lithuania and, in some cases, other Baltic states from the Soviet-era electricity grid where Russian electricity can be purchased. Supplies are used as weapons on both sides.
Political Impact
Within Kaliningrad, Russian media say they are considering increasing sea shipping from St. Petersburg to make up for the lack of rail delivery. I quoted the municipality. Prior to the invasion, Russians and excursions traded extensively with the nearby Lithuanian border area, but this stopped when sanctions were imposed.
Energy building and broader independence from Russia were key themes of the Three Seas Initiative Conference this week in the Latvian capital. Twelve EU member states from the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas have gathered together with Polish and Latvian leaders. It also demands better rail links between states to better manage the movement of troops and goods in future crises.
In the short term, it means increasing reliance on foreign gas from suppliers like the United States and Japan. But going further, the Baltic States and Poland are all investing resources in renewable energy to reduce their dependence on Russia.
But perhaps the most complex impact is on local politics. Russian-speaking minorities in both Latvia and Estonia, and newspaper editorials warn of "quiz rings and collaborators", reporting to Russian speakers suspected of Putin's support for months after the invasion There was criticism.
It remains unclear how realistic such concerns are. The aggression has flooded NATO's support and anger against Russia, including many Russian speakers in the region. Earlier this month, tensions with Russia and deepened education in Russian and Estonian reportedly unveiled the Estonian ruling coalition, primarily because of the desire to build a new government without a Russian-speaking center party. I am.
So far, the risk of a complete dispute over the Baltic states seems to be limited. This is mainly due to the lack of resources in the Kremlin. But if that happens, and if the risks are clearly increased, it will force NATO and the European Union directly against Moscow in a more dangerous way than the current war.
** Peter Apps is a writer on international issues, globalization, conflicts and other issues. He is the founder and managing director of a research project in the 21st century. PS21, non-state, non-partisan, non-ideal think tank. Paralyzed in a 2006 war zone car accident, he also blogs about his disabilities and other topics. He was a former Reuters reporter and continues to receive payments from Thomson Reuters. Since 2016, he has been a member of the British Army Reserve and the British Labor Party. (Edited by Nick Macfie)