Kurl: Trudeau and Poilievre face a similar challenge in attracting voters

Perhaps it is a quaint, naïve wish that one of the two might find a way past the division they are both responsible for stoking in different ways.

Pierre Poilievre, left, and Justin Trudeau both need to overcome an unlikability factor outside their own support bases. Photo by Blair Gable /Reuters

Plus ça change. It should not come as a surprise to any Canadian political watcher worth their salt that the Conservative Party of Canada appears to have a little wind in its sails after the election (well, coronation really) of leader Pierre Poilievre. After years of being essentially locked in a statistical tie with the governing Liberals when it comes to voter intention, several public opinion polls (including our own from the Angus Reid Institute) reflect growing daylight between the parties — with the CPC ahead.

What remains the same, for now anyway, is the inability of Poilievre and his rival, Justin Trudeau, to overcome an unlikability factor outside their own support bases that leaves both incapable of impressing a broader segment of the population.

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Without change, the result will most certainly be continued frustration for the actors involved. Those bearing witness to an increasingly polarized political climate aren’t likely to fare much better if they are looking for leadership that unites rather than divides.

Consider some of the characteristics Canadians used to describe messieurs Poilievre and Trudeau in our same recent study: the most ascribed attribute for both is “arrogant” (40 per cent say this of the CPC leader, 49 per cent say so for the Liberal chief).

But it is what supporters of one man say about the other that is particularly striking. Those who voted Conservative in the 2021 election voters are most likely to describe Trudeau as “arrogant,” “corrupt,” “weak,” “dishonest” and “uncaring.”

The other side — past Liberal voters — don’t think much about Poilievre, using almost exactly the same negative attributes to describe him: “arrogant,” “dishonest,” “corrupt,” “uncaring” and a “bully.”

So, in essence, what Conservatives believe is wrong with Trudeau is precisely what Liberals believe is wrong with Poilievre. Gosh.

It helps neither leader (nor presumably, voters searching in vain for some common ground) that they face a staggering gender divide in their support. Gone are the days when Trudeau’s once-stratospheric post-cannabis-legalizing approval levels were buttressed by, among others, men aged 18-to-34. Man, have those men ever flown the coop. Two-thirds of younger adult males now disapprove of the prime minister, while nearly half view Poilievre favourably. Older men view Poilievre with a slightly more wary eye, but across the age divide they are fed up with Trudeau.

Poilievre, on the other hand, has a problem with women, or rather, they have a problem with him. Majorities across all female age demographics view the CPC leader unfavourably. They’re OK with Trudeau, but who really captures their admiration (especially women 18-to-34) is NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.

Perhaps it is a quaint, naïve, throwback-era wish that one of Poilievre or Trudeau might find a way past the rhetoric, past the division they are both responsible for stoking, each in his own way. Trudeau denies the divisions and marginalization many in this country feel while rightly condemning the worst and most extreme segments of that population. Poilievre accurately speaks to the fact that not all Canadians are onside with this government’s policy and direction, but has played vigorous footsie with the most odious elements of that segment. (Read this if you’ve forgotten).

But the material point is neither will be able to truly earn a defensible, majority mandate from a plurality of voters if they don’t bridge the gap somehow. Conservatives won’t be able to win government unless they can once again punch through in urban centres. The Liberals bought themselves more time, but their supply and confidence agreement with the NDP is not guaranteed to hold, and there is a level of fatigue with their government. Though it worked — just barely — in the last two elections, “we’re the least-worst option” is hardly a rallying campaign slogan.

Let us hope for — even if we don’t completely believe in it —change for the better.

Shachi Kurl is President of the Angus Reid Institute, a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation


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