LILLEY: CPC leadership race undecided even after the number of members is announced

The numbers are staggering: 675,000 Canadians have become members of the Conservative Party of Canada.

Leadership front runner Pierre Poilievre claims to have sold 311,958 membership.

Despite all of this, Poilievre is not guaranteed to win.

The Conservative Party has a complex voting system that gives 100 points for each horseback riding, or 1 point for each horseback riding member if there are less than 100 members. To win, candidates must hit a magic number of 16,901 points once the ballot is cast on each horseback riding nationwide.

Poilievre's campaign impressively registered 46% of the party's total membership, when his number was calculated at face value. As a reminder, all sales claims in the campaign will be taken at face value until evidence is found that they are not telling the truth.

However, 46% of the party's total membership may not be enough to win.

A few months ago, before membership was known, that is, before the big Poilievre rally was in the news, more than 45% of CPC leadership race veterans voted. He won't win in the first vote unless he wins.

The structure of the leadership race, a ranked voting system, makes it more difficult for front runners to get the support of those who were eliminated early in the race. We already know that about 95,000 of the 269,000 voters did not vote in the 2020 Conservative leadership race.

If 35% of Poilievre's supporters don't vote, it will be difficult for him to win, despite the obvious benefits of selling the most memberships. As a result, no one declared victory in conversations with three front runner campaign team members, Poilievre, Jean Charest, and Patrick Brown.

Charest and Brown's campaign argued that the structure of the points system provided a valid path to victory. Poilievre's campaign is shocking and awe-inspiring about membership sales, rally size, and social media presence.

However, no objection to any of these camps was less than 100 times, with two-thirds of the party's 675,000 members concentrated in the countryside of western Canada and Ontario. It seems to indicate that it is being held in the Ontario constituency. In addition, it is said that it occupies more than 100,000 members in total of 20 horseback riding.

No one officially confirms these numbers, just as if they were true, and no one would deny it. This is not a good situation for the Poilievre campaign. It will draw portraits of very focused and inefficient voting.

"Looks real," said a party insider who is familiar with the numbers and is not affiliated with any campaign.

The three biggest horseback riding by membership is Alberta, and the two biggest horseback riding by Ontario membership are Carlton (Poilievre's horseback riding) and Brampton in the heart of Brown's constituency. It's East. Ontario alone has about 293,000 members, of which Poilievre's campaign claims to have sold 118,000, or 40% of the total.

To win in Ontario and Quebec, that is, to gain leadership, Poilievre needs to have everyone who sells their membership actually mail a ballot. You also need to get an existing party membership. Of the 33,800 points available nationwide, 19,900 are in Ontario and Quebec, and 3,200 Atlantic are about the same as Alberta's 3,400.

In conclusion, despite the shock and awe of Poilievre's campaign numbers, the race isn't over and both Charest and Brown are on their way to victory. The road to these victories may be narrow, but there is much to regret for Poilievre and his supporters.

As with the general election campaign, this race can be determined by who can vote the most at critical times.