Considering the near non-stop attacks in some parts of the media, it is truly remarkable.
One poll showing Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals is interesting, but three polls showing that is a trend.
In the last week Leger, Mainstreet and Angus Reid polls have all shown the Conservatives with a significant lead over the Liberals.
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The people working in their cubicles and offices in Trudeau’s PMO need to be worried.
The first poll out was Leger, released last week with 34% of respondents saying they would vote for Poilievre and the Conservatives over Trudeau’s Liberals at 28% support. That’s an important reversal because when Leger polled a month earlier, the Liberals were at 33% and the Conservatives at 28%.
I’ll admit that when I saw Mainstreet with the Conservatives at 40% to the Liberals 32%, I thought it was most definitely an outlier – the mythical 20th poll that gets it wrong. And perhaps it is an outlier in how they have the Conservative support, but it’s not an outlier in there being a gap between the Tories and the Grits.
The latest Angus Reid poll puts the Conservatives at 37% to the Liberals’ 30% support, with the Conservatives taking significant support – 39% – in Ontario.
None of these polls, all taken in the last two weeks, shows the same results, but they do show a lead of 6-8% for the Conservatives and that is what is significant here. We are a long way out from a possible election and lots can happen between now and then, but voters appear willing to give Poilievre a look.
Considering the near non-stop attacks in some parts of the media, that is truly remarkable.
How to take it to the next level
The narrative out of the Angus Reid poll is that the growth in the Conservative vote is due to voters who backed the People’s Party of Canada last election saying they will vote Conservative this time. That’s part of what is happening but it’s not the whole story because there simply aren’t enough PPC voters and not all of them voted Conservative previously.
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Poilievre appears to be pulling from people who backed the Liberals in the last election as well, which he needs to do if he wants to win. There are plenty of people who voted Liberal over the past few elections who are disillusioned and ready for change.
One group that Poilievre needs to break through on to take him and his party to the next level is women. In Canadian politics, men normally favour Conservatives and women lean more to the Liberals. Whenever either party wins big it’s because they broke through with the other gender.
That’s what Stephen Harper did in 2011 and what Justin Trudeau did in 2015.
Poilievre needs to connect his pitch for making the cost of living more affordable relevant to women, mostly suburban women and mothers who are most likely to vote Conservative. It’s a completely achievable task for Poilievre, especially if he shows more of the personal side like he did with his speech the night he won the leadership.
I’ve been one of the people saying we could see a fall election, that if Trudeau and his team saw an opening to winning a majority then they might take it. We are in a minority Parliament and even with a deal between the Liberals and the NDP, anything can happen.
It’s still possible we could see an early vote but these polls and any more that look like them will put the brakes on that idea and send Trudeau’s team scrambling for something, anything, to attack Poilievre with.
blilley@postmedia.com