Speculation grows in B.C. over snap provincial election

As David Eby prepares to announce his new cabinet Wednesday, and against a backdrop of B.C.’s strong financial picture, many are speculating the new premier will call a snap election despite repeated vows he’ll wait until the fixed October 2024 date.

B.C. Green Leader Sonia Furstenau announced Tuesday that her party has opened nominations for candidates so they can be prepared for a such an election.

“I sincerely hope that Premier Eby follows the law and sees through the full term of this parliament,” she said in a statement. “He has given me his personal assurance that the next time voters go to the ballot box, it will be in October 2024. Nevertheless, it is our job as a party to be ready for anything, so we will be prepared for a snap election should that come to pass.”

In searching for candidates early, the B.C. Greens are ensuring they won’t be caught off-guard like they were when former premier John Horgan called a snap election during COVID-19 in October 2020. That gamble paid off, delivering the B.C. NDP its largest majority.

That’s led to speculation Eby could use the same tactic, capitalizing on recent good-news announcements including cash back for taxpayers and more spending to come thanks to B.C.’s $5.7 billion surplus. That one-time windfall is unlikely to be repeated as B.C.’s financial outlook projects economic growth of just 0.5 per cent in 2023.

“The case is strong to go early rather than wait until 2024,” said David Black, a political communication expert at Royal Roads University.

Black said Eby’s 100-day plan, which promises to address public safety, housing, health and climate change, sends a clear political message of: “We’re here with our solutions. We’re going to do it in a hurry.”

Since Eby was named B.C. NDP leader on Oct. 21, he’s repeatedly said he has no plans to call an early election, saying British Columbians want the government to focus on the major issues of health care, public safety and affordability.

Horgan, too, firmly denied he was planning to call a snap election during the pandemic until he suddenly announced he was tearing up the power sharing deal with the B.C. Greens over disagreements on legislation.

Gerald Baier, a political scientist at the University of B.C., said the circumstances are different now compared with when Horgan blamed the early election call on the precariousness of governing with a minority government.

Calling an election with a comfortable majority and no risk of being ousted “seems like a very cynical move just to take advantage of the most propitious circumstances to get another (majority),” Baier said.

Baier said with Eby’s ministerial picks to be unveiled Wednesday, they will have little time to prove themselves as a cabinet before switching into election mode.

However, Baier said “reading the tea leaves” of the province’s comfortable financial position and the flurry of announcements since Eby became premier could prompt political strategists to push for a mid-2023 election.

Eby could make the case, that as a new leader, he wants to go to the voters to secure a new mandate.

“The only argument he has is this is a kind of referendum on me. We’ve changed leaders so now you should make sure that you like the new leader,” he said.

Eby marked his first day as premier by announcing a $100 B.C. Hydro rebate and a new B.C. affordability credit for lower- and middle-income British Columbians.

His first weeks in office were punctuated by a flurry of announcements adding up to $1 billion worth of spending: $230 million to hire more Mounties, and $76.5 million on a range of public safety initiatives including tools to deal with prolific offenders, improvements to mental-health and addiction teams, and investments in Indigenous justice centres.

He also announced two pieces of legislation to address the housing shortage and a plan to loosen restrictions around internationally trained doctors to address the health-care shortage of physicians.

Eby’s election calculus could also include picking the worst possible time for the B.C. Liberals. The party is in the middle of rebranding as B.C. United. While party leader Kevin Falcon has said they’re being strategic about the timing to ensure the B.C. NDP don’t call a snap election immediately after the rebranding, the party is committing significant resources toward the name change process that could distract from election planning.

“I’m not sure democracy is well-served by governments who break fixed election-based laws,” said B.C. Liberal party vice-president Caroline Elliott.

She said the party isn’t yet at the stage of opening nominations for candidates but “it’s something that we’re absolutely thinking of with an eye to the spring should we find ourselves in that situation. We’d be crazy not to.”

The province does have a fixed election law, brought in by Horgan’s government, but there’s no penalty for flouting it.

kderosa@postmedia.com

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