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Libya's worst fighting in two years suddenly hit the capital Tripoli on Saturday. It explains what led to the violence, why it matters, and how things unfold.

How did Libya fall apart?

Libya's government has taken a different stance as the local groups that overthrew Muammar Gaddafi in his NATO-backed rebellion in 2011 have Fault lines surfaced.

The attempted transition to democracy got out of hand as armed groups built local power bases and coalesced with rival political factions to seize control of economic assets.

After the Battle of Tripoli in 2014, one faction, including most parliamentarians, moved east and approved Khalifa Haftar as military chief, eventually paralleling the established a government.

A UN-backed deal created a new, internationally recognized government in Tripoli, but factions in the east opposed the deal and Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) announced his 2019 attacked the capital.

The factions that control western Libya have united to support the Tripoli government, which opposes Haftar, repelling his offensive with the help of Turkey in 2020, with a ceasefire and UN backing. led to a new peace process.

How did the latest controversy unfold?

The peace process has resulted in a new government of national unity under Prime Minister Abdulhamid Al-Dhubeiba, who has the power to oversee the national elections scheduled for December 2021, but there have been conflicts over voting rules. No agreement was reached and the process fell apart.

In eastern Libya, parliament declared the Dubeiba government illegal and appointed a new government under Fatih Bashaga. Dbeibah rejected the move, saying he would only hand over power after elections.

Meanwhile, the western Libyan factions united against Haftar were occasionally skirmishing over positions in Tripoli.

Bashaga attempted to enter Tripoli shortly after his March appointment, but a pro-Dbeiba faction blocked his convoy. He tried again in May, but left Tripoli after a brief shootout.

As the months went on, alliances and coalitions between Tripoli's factions changed, with Dbeibah and his Bashagha both tried to cite key players. In the streets of Tripoli, armies rubbed each other's territories.

When fighting broke out between his two groups on Friday night, factions aligned with Bashaga called for a new attempt to install Bashaga in the capital. launched an attack that looked like an aggressive attack. However, the move fell through and Dbeibah appears to have taken a stronger position.

Any chance of a political agreement?

Haftar's powerful eastern faction and parliamentary speaker, Aguila Saleh, showed little willingness to compromise his goals of removing Dubeiba and installing Bashaga.

But with Bashaga seemingly incapable of building a coalition of Western factions that could install him in Tripoli, they may need to reconsider.

2020 Turkey's continued military presence around Tripoli after helping fend off attacks in the east in 2019 means that another Haftar attack on the capital is now highly unlikely

Some politicians have put forward the idea of ​​another attempt to form a new government acceptable to all sides.

Meanwhile, diplomacy has stalled, and agreement on how to hold elections as a permanent solution to Libya's political conflict has been delayed more than ever.

International efforts to broker an agreement have led to disagreements between the countries involved and among local factions that many Libyans want to avoid elections to stay in power.

Much of Libya's population of about 7 million will only be followed by another outbreak of violence, no matter how the next round of negotiations and positioning unfolds.

How it will affect Libyan oil.

Libya's main export of up to 1.3 million Controlling the revenues from barrel oil production has long been the biggest prize for all major political and military factions.

The group has repeatedly halted production so far as a tactic to pressure the government of Tripoli, where all foreign oil sales revenues are channeled to the central bank through international agreements.

The previous shutdown, which cut exports by about half, ended when Dbeibah replaced the head of the National Oil Corporation with his Haftar ally. political deal.

This may be enough for him to stop one shutdown while the pro-Bashaga faction looks for his next move. However, with Libya's political turmoil far from resolved, it seems unlikely that oil exports will be left unattended for very long.

(reported by Angus McDowall, edited by Frances Kerry)