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More than 40 million Americans are in the path of a storm system that forecasters say is highly likely to cause tornadoes.
The areas under threat stretch from southeastern Texas into Georgia and then north into central Indiana and Illinois, according to the US Storm Prediction Center.
"We are fairly confident that there will be multiple tornadoes on the ground from late Tuesday (afternoon) to early Tuesday night," AccuWeather’s chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"People should take this threat seriously."
The most severe weather is likely to impact around one million people in central Mississippi, including the city of Jackson, and parts of east-central Louisiana. Forecasters were warning of large hailstones and a level 4 out of 5 possibility of tornadoes.
“Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, very large hail, and a few severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast,” a Storm Prediction Center spokesperson said. “A few strong tornadoes will be possible.”
Rare warnings
It’s rare that federal forecasters warn of major tornadoes with the potential for carving damages across long distances, but they are doing so in Tuesday’s forecasts, the Associated Press reported on Tuesday.
“Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms -- some capable of long-tracked tornadoes with EF3+ damage potential -- will be possible this afternoon into tonight over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region and Mid-South,” the Norman, Oklahoma-based Storm Prediction Center said.
Forecasters warned of the potential for strong tornadoes that could stay on the ground for long distances in parts of the South, as well as flooding rains and hail the size of tennis balls.
More than 25 million people will be at risk as Tuesday’s potent storm system moves across a region stretching from east Texas to Indiana and Georgia. The national Storm Prediction Center said in its latest storm outlook that affected cities could include New Orleans; Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee; and Birmingham, Alabama.
Parts of Louisiana and Mississippi will be at the highest risk for strong storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the possibility of severe weather continuing into Wednesday and moving into Alabama.
How to prepare
Dr Rick Knabb, a hurricane expert at The Weather Channel, shared tips on how to stay safe during the severe weather.
“Tornado watch doesn’t mean wait until a warning to take any action,” he tweeted “There are things to do right now so you’re ready to quickly take cover in safest room when warning issued. First and foremost get out of mobile homes, off roads, into sturdy building now.
The regions at risk
The most recent update from the National Weather Service Storm Center in Norman, Oklahoma, in the heart of Tornado Alley, provided the list of the areas to be prepared for severe weather.
Strong tornadoes, very large, “baseball-sized” hail, and severe wind gusts are forecast from Tuesday afternoon into tonight in Northern Alabama, Northeast Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, Southern Tennessee.
The severe weather outlook on Tuesday
(NOAA)
Watch: Forecasters warn of extreme weather on the way
Rain in the forecast for Tuesday
Tornado warnings begin in Louisiana
Tornado warnings started to pop up early on Tuesday afternoon from the National Weather Service’s official Twitter account
Among the first were for the tiny towns of Mamou, Pine Prairie and Reddell in Evangeline Parish, Louisiana until 12.15pm (Central Time).
Why it’s so hard to know if tornadoes are caused by climate change
In December 2021, a powerful tornado outbreak across six US states left dozens of people dead.
At the time, I wrote about the difficulty of linking these events to the climate crisis.
The climate crisis is not going to unravel how everyone expects
What is a tornado?
Tornadoes are whirling, vertical air columns that form from thunderstorms and stretch to the ground. They travel with ferocious speed and lay waste to everything in their path.
Thunderstorms occur when denser, drier cold air is pushed over warmer, humid air, conditions scientists call atmospheric instability. As that happens, an updraft is created when the warm air rises. When winds vary in speed or direction at different altitudes — a condition known as wind shear — the updraft will start to spin.
These changes in winds produce the spin necessary for a tornado. For especially strong tornadoes, changes are needed in both the wind’s speed and direction.
More from the Independent on tornadoes and how the climate crisis makes them worse here.
Still some risk tomorrow
According to weather.com, the potential for severe weather will decrease on Wednesday. However, some parts of the Southeast could see one to two inches of rain and flash flooding is possible in areas where too much rain falls too quickly.
Meteorologist explains threat levels
Meteorologist Craig Ceecee has outlined what the storm categories mean:
He added: “If you can’t get to your safe place from home, or up and out, in 5 minutes - especially if in a mobile home or weaker structure - you should spend the time under #tornado threat tomorrow somewhere else (with family/friends, at work or at a shelter).”