The death toll from the massive earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on Monday climbed above 15,000 by Wednesday, according to authorities, as rescuers raced to save survivors trapped under debris in freezing weather.
Officials and medics said 12,391 people had died in Turkey and 2,992 in Syria from Monday’s 7.8-magnitude tremor, bringing the confirmed total to 15,383. Tens of thousands more were injured.
Rescue teams in Turkey and Syria have been searching for signs of life from an untold number of people trapped in the rubble. Teams from more than two dozen countries, including Israel, have joined tens of thousands of local emergency personnel in the effort. But the scale of destruction from the quake and its powerful aftershocks was so immense and spread over such a wide area that many people were still awaiting help.
Experts said the survival window for those trapped under the rubble or otherwise unable to obtain basic necessities was closing rapidly. At the same time, they said it was too soon to abandon hope.
“The first 72 hours are considered to be critical,” said Steven Godby, a natural hazards expert at Nottingham Trent University in England. “The survival ratio on average within 24 hours is 74%, after 72 hours it is 22% and by the fifth day it is 6%.”
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Rescuers at times used excavators or picked gingerly through debris. It was not clear how many people might still be trapped.
Residents and rescue personnel search for victims and survivors through the rubble of collapsed buildings in Kahramanmaras, on February 8, 2023, two days after a 7,8-magnitude earthquake struck southeast Turkey. (OZAN KOSE / AFP)
Stories of rescues continued to provide hope that some people still trapped might be found alive. A crying newborn still connected by the umbilical cord to her deceased mother was rescued Monday in Syria. In Turkey’s Kahramanmaras, rescuers pulled a three-year-old boy from the rubble, and teams sent by the Israeli military saved at least four people, including a two-year-old boy.
But David Alexander, a professor of emergency planning and management at University College London, said data from past earthquakes suggested the likelihood of survival was now slim, particularly for seriously injured individuals.
“Statistically, today is the day when we’re going to stop finding people,” he said on Wednesday. “That doesn’t mean we should stop searching.”
Alexander cautioned that the final death toll may not be known for weeks because of the sheer amount of rubble.
The earthquake’s toll has already outstripped that of a 7.8-magnitude quake in Nepal in 2015, when 8,800 died. A 2011 earthquake in Japan triggered a tsunami, killing nearly 20,000 people.
Many of those who survived this week’s quake lost their homes and were forced to sleep in cars, government shelters, or outdoors amid rain and snowfall in some areas.
“We don’t have a tent, we don’t have a heating stove, we don’t have anything. Our children are in bad shape,” Aysan Kurt, 27, said. “We did not die from hunger or the earthquake, but we will die freezing from the cold.”