2022 NFL Week 3 predictions: Picks against the spread for every game

The Jets pulled off the Earthquake By the Lake last week with their 31-30 victory in Cleveland, becoming the first NFL team in 21 years to win after trailing by 13 or more points in the final two minutes. The previous 2,229 times that feat was tried, it failed.

Yes, the Jets got insanely lucky that the Browns took a tack-on touchdown instead of a chance to kneel away the victory. But Joe Flacco did throw touchdown passes to Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson surrounding a well-designed and executed onside kick, and Ashtyn Davis did make a clutch interception just when it looked as if the miracle would switch sides.

So now here we are, with the Jets 1-1 and taking on the Bengals (0-2) on Sunday at MetLife Stadium. In the first season under head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets won four games, and the following weeks were all disasters in different ways as they went 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread.

Those games included a sleepwalking start against the Falcons in London, 532 yards and 45 points allowed to the Colts, two missed PAT kicks, and an incomplete pass on a two-point conversion that doomed a strong start against the Eagles, and a last-minute loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers after Zach Wilson was stopped on a quarterback sneak. Teams that have been down have to learn to win, and this scenario is one of the lessons.

Easily the best of the four Jets wins in 2021 was the 34-31 Mike White Halloween shocker over the Bengals. Cincinnati was 5-2 entering that game and starting to develop into the Joe Burrow- and Ja’Marr Chase-led team that made it to the Super Bowl and almost won it.

This time, the Bengals come in 0-2 after losses to the Steelers and Cowboys. And no, it wasn’t Terry Bradshaw and Roger Staubach at quarterback against them, but Mitch Trubisky and Cooper Rush. More worrisome, though, is that Burrow was sacked 13 times in the two games. Head coach Zac Taylor will have to make some adjustments, including telling Burrow to get rid of the ball quicker.

The pick: Jets +6.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (+5.5) over Buffalo Bills

This is mainly a situational fade of the otherwise-awesome Bills. Their first two games have been prime-time blowout wins, and now they travel on a short week and have to slug it out with the Dolphins, also 2-0, in the forecast Real Feel of 97 degrees. Maybe Tyreek Hill will give them Chiefs flashbacks.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+3) over Baltimore Ravens

After blowing a 21-point lead in the final 13 minutes to Miami, the Ravens head to Foxborough banged up. Lamar Jackson has something going on with his elbow and WR Devin Duvernay missed practice on Wednesday with a concussion. This will probably end up being a middling season for the Patriots, but this seems like a good time to take some points at home with Bill Belichick.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+6.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

A little worried that Philadelphia rushed for 356 yards in two wins over Washington last season. Still, the Commanders’ win over the Jaguars looks a little stronger after last week, Carson Wentz will be motivated to beat his ex-team and it’s a road trip (albeit a short one) off a rousing Monday night win for the Eagles.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+2.5) over New Orleans Saints

Fifth home underdog in a row to start the selections this week. Even though the perception is the Panthers (0-2) have been atrocious so far, they have lost by two and three points. The Saints are a better team when healthy, but their midweek injury report includes Jameis Winston (back, ankle) and Alvin Kamara (rib).

Detroit Lions (+6) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

It’s natural to expect the Vikings to bounce back from their embarrassing loss at Philadelphia, but this is a short week and the visitors are back in their best role as sizable underdogs. Lions are 13-6 ATS in Dan Campbell’s first 19 games as coach.

CHICAGO BEARS (-3) over Houston Texans

While the Bears ended up getting distanced by the Packers on Sunday night, they can build off a couple of second-half drives on which they ran the ball continuously through the Green Bay defense that knew what was coming. Spread feels low enought to lay the points.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+5.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Normally wouldn’t want to bet a team that got shut out by the Jaguars 24-0 the next week against a great team like the Chiefs that even comes in off extra rest. The line has been a bit inflated by that result, though, and I’m not ready to write off the Colts before they’ve played a home game.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

True, Las Vegas is 0-2 SU and ATS and is coming off blowing a 20-point lead to the Cardinals. Yet with Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Maxx Crosby, the Raiders feel like the more likely of these two teams to have their big breakout. Short week for Titans. too.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+7) over Los Angeles Chargers

I’d like to thank Justin Herbert for the miracle cover in K.C., playing with BBQ’d ribs. That injury and the perception the Chargers always do a little less than you’d expect make me not want to give this many points to the potentially upstart Jaguars.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3.5) over Los Angeles Rams

The defending champs have been crushed by the Bills and then gave up a bad backdoor cover to the Falcons in a win. Kliff Kingsbury may be no “Lombelichick,” but that was a nice win coming back from 20-0 down in Las Vegas. We’ll let it ride on red with the Cardinals for another week.

Green Bay Packers (+1) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Much of the focus is on Mike Evans’ suspension for fighting to protect “That’s Tom Brady!” and that takes away attention from the rest of the injury report, which is loaded with skill players from both teams. Hard to predict with all the uncertainty, but will lean to the one-loss Pack because they might have a little more urgency.

Atlanta Falcons (+1) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Falcons come in healthy while the Seahawks sport a lengthy injury list to go with Jamal Adams having been lost for the season. Drake London and Kyle Pitts could go off.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at DENVER BRONCOS

Just what Nathaniel Hackett needs, another game under the prime-time microscope. This time he could be without Jerry Jeudy, Patrick Surtain II and some other key players. In Jimmy Garoppolo We Trust.

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Monday

NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) over Dallas Cowboys

This could end up a case of the Cowboys being the better team getting a point. However, there’s going to be a lot of noise and emotion on Big Blue’s side in this prime-timer, and they could have Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari back to rush Cooper Rush. Call it a little spec money on Brian Daboll.

Best bets

49ers, Jaguars, Falcons.

Last week

8-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.

Lock of the week

49ers (Locks 2-0 in 2022).

Thursday

Steelers (L).