Vladimir Putin’s three-day war against Ukraine is entering its second year. One thing is certain, 2023 will not be a year of peace. Those calling for negotiations between the two countries are wasting their breath. Neither side is ready for talks, and both sides still think they can win. Right now, Ukraine has momentum after two successful counterattacks late last year in Kharkiv and Kherson, but Russia is finalizing a large-scale mobilization of fresh troops.
As Russia digs deep into its stockpiles of older military hardware, it gets weaker. As Ukraine receives more advanced military hardware from the West, it gets stronger. The big question is whether Western military support for Ukraine is too-little-too-late or just in time to make 2023 a year of victory.
Russia is in the final stages of planning a major offensive operation to regain momentum. There is no doubt Ukraine has a few surprises up its sleeve too.
In the coming months, there are three places to watch:
One Ukrainian friend who was recently there told me he has never seen so many dead bodies in his life — “not even in a Hollywood film.” How long the Ukrainians can — or should — hold this town is anyone’s guess, but they are making the Russians pay dearly to capture it.
Russia could try another attack on Kyiv or an attack from Belarus into western Ukraine to disrupt the crucial supply lines coming from Poland. Neither would be likely to succeed, but both would cause enough trouble for Ukraine that its forces would have to be diverted from other points along the frontline
Ukrainians are not asking for, nor do they want, US troops to help them fight Russia. All they ask for is the equipment, weapons, munitions, and financial resources required to give them a fighting chance. With US assistance, Ukraine is dismantling the armed forces of one of America’s top international foes — and without a drop of American blood being spilled.
But more needs to be done. We need to start wanting the Ukrainians to win more than we just hope Russia is going to lose. In addition to the armored vehicles and tanks, it is time to give the Ukrainians longer-range missiles, fighter jets, armed drones, and an uninterrupted flow of munitions. We shouldn’t be scared of a Ukrainian victory.
As President Volodymyr Zelensky told Congress in December, US assistance to Ukraine is not charity. For Americans who believe in the principle of self-defense, respect for international borders, and the right of people to choose how and by whom they are governed, support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression is natural. With their eyes on Taiwan, the Chinese are also watching how we support Ukraine — or how we don’t.
Helping Ukraine might be expensive, but we cannot afford to fail. There is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to put Russia back into its box for a generation. Let’s not blow it.
Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.