Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction: AFC Championship odds and pick Sunday

Last year, we were treated to an AFC Championship for the ages after Joe Burrow led the Bengals and stunned the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium for an epic comeback.

Twelve months later, both teams find themselves in the same exact spot – but the sports betting market is expecting a different performance this time around.

This point spread has bounced around all week amid speculation about Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury that figures to severely limit his mobility this weekend. That initially sparked a run of early money on Cincinnati, though bettors have come back around on top-seeded Kansas City as kickoff nears.

Chiefs vs. Bengals odds (via BetMGM)

• Chiefs -1 (-110), moneyline -115
• Bengals +1 (-110), moneyline -105
• O/U 48 (-110)

When the odds were first posted for this game on Sunday night, I could hardly believe that the Chiefs opened as favorites to win this AFC title rematch. It wasn’t because of the Bengals’ 10-game win streak, or their dominance over Kansas City in recent years, or even their resounding win over the preseason favorite Bills in the divisional round.

It has everything to do with Patrick Mahomes’ sprained right ankle.

Sometimes, it really is that simple. Last week, Mahomes looked like the best quarterback on the planet through the first drive, scrambling all over the field and improvising how only he can to foil the Jaguars’ defensive game plan. Then he suffered a high ankle sprain and led his team to just 10 points in the second half – only escaping with a win because Jacksonville’s inexperienced offense squandered multiple chances in the fourth quarter.

I don’t foresee a similar script for the Bengals, who rank third in full-season offensive DVOA with elite marks in pass offense (sixth) and rush offense (second). Cincinnati set a franchise record for first downs in a postseason game (30) in last week’s 32-13 win in Buffalo, which marked this team’s sixth straight postseason game with one or fewer turnovers.

Burrow has been stellar in those six games, totaling nine touchdowns with just two giveaways and a 5-1 record to show for it. He’s also dominated Kansas City’s defense over the last 13 months, throwing for 982 yards and eight touchdowns in a trio of 3-point wins.

Compare that to Mahomes, who threw for 275 yards or fewer in all three meetings – he’s averaged 304 yards in his other 89 career starts – and tossed two interceptions in last year’s second-half collapse on this very stage. And that’s all without a high ankle sprain that threatens to derail his entire playing style on Sunday.

Before Mahomes got hurt last week, six of his 12 attempts came outside of the pocket. After the injury, all 18 of his attempts were in the pocket, and his average time to throw dropped from 3.1 seconds to 2.6 seconds. That’s a major issue for the presumptive MVP, whose offensive brilliance is fueled by his creativity outside of the tackle box.

During the regular season, Mahomes led the league in pass attempts outside the pocket (117), passing yards on the run (851), and attempts with at least four seconds to throw (99), and he also paced the field in EPA per dropback outside the pocket. To be fair, he’s elite from the pocket, too, but the Jaguars tested his ability to withstand heavy pressure in last week’s contest and held him to just 114 combined yards in the second half.

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I’d expect this underrated Bengals defense – which shut down the run-heavy Ravens and high-flying Bills in consecutive weeks – to bring the heat in creative ways and force Mahomes to rely on that injured ankle, which could be an even greater hindrance after a full week of swelling than it was in the divisional round.

When you consider that Cincinnati has had Kansas City’s number in recent years, even with a healthy Mahomes, his untimely injury feels more and more like the nail in the coffin for the Chiefs’ title hopes. The Bengals have been undervalued for far too long – as evidenced by a 21-5 run against the spread entering Sunday – and are the obvious play here as puzzling underdogs.

Chiefs vs. Bengals prediction