Bills vs. Dolphins predictions: Miami looks to break seven-game skid against Buffalo

Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Bills vs. Dolphins predictions and picks for their NFL Week 3 showdown, which is live Sunday at 1 EST on CBS.

Only six NFL teams are 2-0, and two will square off in South Florida this week when the AFC East rival Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins get together, both coming off memorable wins.

Bills vs. Dolphins prediction

• Dolphins to cover (+6) @ -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
• Jaylen Waddle to score a touchdown @ +150 at Caesars Sportsbook
• Josh Allen over 278.5 passing yards @ -115 at Caesars Sportsbook

Bills vs. Dolphins predictions, picks, and analysis

The Bills have begun the season by outscoring their opponents 72-17, creating a plus-55 point differential that not only leads the NFL but represents the second-best differential through two games in team history. Buffalo didn’t snack on cupcakes, either, instead taking down the Super Bowl champion Rams and the Titans, the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs teamed up to exploit Tennessee’s inexperienced corners on three touchdowns in Monday’s 41-7 rout.

But the story of the week in the NFL wasn’t a blowout, but the comebacks, especially the one in Baltimore. The Dolphins trailed the Ravens 35-14 early in the fourth quarter when Tua Tagovailoa led a dynamic comeback. Lost in the 42-38 instant classic: the fact that Lamar Jackson posted one of the best games of his career for Baltimore, and the Dolphins still left with the W.

Dolphins +6

If there’s one thing NFL fans should know from seasons past, it’s that the team that looks like the best in the league during September rarely pulls out a Super Bowl title, and a perfect regular-season record is even less likely. The Bills won’t beat every team by 20 to 30 points this year, especially with an upcoming schedule that features the Ravens, Chiefs, and Packers.

For now, on a short week, the Bills must travel to a talented, hungry division opponent listed as a six-point home dog.

Since 2018, the Dolphins are 9-4 at home against divisional opponents, including this year’s season-opening win over the New England Patriots, 20-7. The core of this team is better than people tend to give it credit for, and now new coach Mike McDaniel has unleashed Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and a dynamic offense.

Should the Bills win by 10 or more points Sunday, they would set a modern-day NFL record with their 21st straight win by double digits. We don’t see it happening. The undefeated home dog is a wiser play.

Our Pick: Dolphins to cover +6

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Jaylen Waddle to score a touchdown (+150, Caesars)

Wideout Jaylen Waddle has scored in both of Miami’s games this year — once against the Patriots and twice more against the Ravens, including the game-winner with 14 seconds left.

After a pretty productive rookie year in 2021 (104 catches, 1,015 yards, six touchdowns), he’s on track to do much more damage with Hill on the other side of the field. Hill and Waddle became the first teammates in the Super Bowl era to haul in 170 receiving yards and two TD receptions apiece in the same game.

The Buffalo defense will be hard-pressed to cover them both, especially because so many starters are banged up. Cornerback Dane Jackson thankfully avoided a serious neck or spinal injury after a scary collision from a teammate against Tennessee. But he did not practice Wednesday and is highly unlikely to play Sunday.

Defensive linemen Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle and starting safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer also appear on Buffalo’s injury report in various ways, so Waddle and the Dolphins might have an easier time finding the end zone.

Our Pick: Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle to score TD

Josh Allen over 278.5 passing yards

Allen threw for 297 yards against the Rams and 317 against the Titans. Mind you, those were both blowouts by the middle of the game, and the way the Dolphins are playing, we believe they’ll be able to keep things closer Sunday.

That leaves more drives for Allen to air it out. He’s faced the Dolphins eight times, more than any team in his young career, and appropriately has thrown for more yards (1,980) and touchdowns (21) against them than against any other opponent, averaging 247.5 yards per game.

Though the Dolphins managed to keep Allen to 214 yards per game in their two meetings last year, the Miami defense had fits trying to stop Jackson last week, which doesn’t bode well when Allen comes to town.

Our Pick: Bills QB Josh Allen to over 278.5 passing yards

Dolphins vs. Bills odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.