BMW Championship Outright Winner Odds and Predictions: Golf Picks to Win

Even at the highest level,Golf is cyclical It's a game. A player's performance rises and falls like the tide. To use a more visual analogy, it has all the twists and turns of a roller coaster. It's not just about hitting and putting. Even lucky breaks and good bounces tend to come in bunches -- and sometimes they don't.

I'm not specifically referring to Will Zaratris here, but he It certainly applies to this story. He could have won his two major championships this summer and last year.

Last week's FedEx St. Jude he said recently before he won the championship by three strokes a major. But that's what drives me. That's why I get up early. That's why, even in my off weeks, I'm still polishing.

and there is friction. Depending on what you Google search for, it could be Arnold Palmer or Gary Player, or neither, who was the first to coin the term "the harder you practice, the luckier you are."

Granted, Zaratris didn't practice his par 3 tee shots where he dances over the rock wall boundary and stops there, but basically it's the one he wins so often. At some point he'll make the playoffs by putting himself in a position for one of the lucky breaks, like Sunday's third extra hole against Cep Straka. And no, he wasn't hitting the shot off the rocks that everyone wanted to see, but simply stopped the ball there and Straca had to play from the drop zone first.

Bettors may need to consider the roller coaster effect, such as metrics and statistics that help associate players with courses on a weekly basis. There is no such thing as a law of averages, but the golf gods tend to offset, so that their measure of justice remains balanced.

That's one of the reasons I've been attending his Zalatoris over the past few weeks, and he's only two events left in his current PGA Tour season. It's one of the reasons we're looking for other players who haven't won yet. Results that justify their performance. Like a pitcher whose ERA is 2.50 and he has a 6-10 record, you can expect an arbitrary "positive regression" to happen at some point.

Bet on golf.

So, this year we're looking for players who haven't yet been hit by the golf gods. Professional golf's most elite class is often something like a deli counter. So our job is to figure out whose number is being called so that he can order a big trophy. If you haven't paid attention to the fact that Delaware even hosts a strong FedEx Cup playoff event.

Wilmington Country Club, just 30 miles outside of the greater Philadelphia metropolitan area, will host his BMW Championship for the first time. With his 7,534 yards on the scorecard, that seems daunting, but we have to remember that the PGA Tour often, but not always, falls heedless when setting up new venues.

Sounds familiar. This is the same script he played last year with BMW hosts Caves Valley, playing similarly long hours, but in four days he scored 27-under 261.

In fact, despite circling a variety of courses, the tournament looks open, with winning scores of at least 20-under (and at least 265 total at-bats) every year since 2015. Except for the 2020 edition, the winning number of 4 under 276 was clearly an outlier.

With that in mind, I'm looking for players who can bunch up birdies in addition to some positive regressions - and it all puts me on a similar path to last week.

BMW Championship outright winner picks and predictions

Colin Morikawa (20/1)

Posts more circles than Morikawa Only one player (Lucas Glover) did last week and was my favorite in that preview as well.

When Morikawa won a major championship in the last two years. It's undeniable that it hasn't beaten the world like it did, but it hasn't hit a "slump." Some have suggested. One of his players in the elite irons of the game, he ranks third in the number of strokes he gets on his approach shots. He is also his 30th off the tee and a very respectable (for a player not known for his flatstick prowess) 75th putt. He owns his five top-five finishes without a win this calendar year, including his T-5 at FedEx St. Jude.

Simply put, there were too many mistakes in his overall performance at TPC Southwinds. He countered his 22 birdies with a double and his 9 bogeys. Putts from 6' and 3' on Sunday's stretch.

However, he only had two bogeys in the weekend's rounds. This suggests that I've at least figured out how to eliminate these errors. He's also the only player in his current OWGR top 16 who hasn't won a trophy at some point this year, so he remains a frontrunner for that positive regression idea.

He's only 69 in the field this week, and while the odds for Big his name aren't high, at this price he's around 11th on the board. A player who approached last week.