As China's military exercises around Taiwan become the new normal, foreign companies are reassessing the risks and costs of doing business in Taiwan, and are wary of passing through what China considers to be an autonomous island. or maintain a supply chain that passes through it. its territory.
Neil Thomas, senior China analyst at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, told VOA Mandarin that the PLA's expanded exercises around Taiwan would increase the risk of accidents and miscalculations. He said it would escalate and develop into protracted military confrontations and conflicts. Another type of international security crisis.
Thomas said in his email response that China's military exercises following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan are raising operating costs for foreign companies. These areas have slow supply chains and costly transactions.
The Wall Street Journal reported thatinsurers were hesitant to offer new policies covering Taiwan-related political risks.One insurance broker said it would not offer policies to new customers "at least until things settle down."
Pelosi visited Taiwan on his August 2to defy the Chinese threat. In response, China launched live-fire military exercises in seven of her waters around the autonomous island, according to Taiwanese officials.
Rupert Hammond Chambers, chairman of the US-Taiwan Business Council, told VOA Mandarin that most global companies will reconsider what it means to invest in Taiwan if things don't settle down soon.
Christina Lai, a professor and assistant researcher at the Institute of Political Science at the Academia Sinica in Taipei, told her VOA. Recent incidents have revealed a clear pattern of China's coercive measures against Taiwan, combining economic sanctions and military exercises.
She warned that heightened levels of military conflict could have a negative impact on Taiwan's economy in the long run.
"Hundreds of flights were canceled last week, for example, due to PLA training near the Taiwan Strait," she told VOA her Mandarin in an email. “If the Chinese navy … strengthens its blockade efforts, trade routes linking the northeast and Southeast Asia [Asia] will soon be disrupted. This could seriously affect Taiwan’s trade volume and economic development. It's a potentially worst-case scenario.”
Some say China is not immune to supply chain disruptions through its own actions.
In a recent article, David Wren, Senior Fellow at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy, argued that if sea lanes to the east and west of Taiwan were disrupted,it would be devastating to China's own economy. said he would give., ``Because major ports such as Shanghai, Dalian, and Tianjin depend on passage through waters near Taiwan.''
The Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from mainland Asia, and one of the world's busiest trade routes for ships carrying goods to and from the rest of the world.
Taiwan's Ministry of Defense said it detected more than 15 PLA (PLA) fighters and at least five vessels in the Taiwan Strait every day this week.
Massachusetts Democratic Senator Ed. By a US delegation led by Marquee.
On Tuesday, Vice Admiral Carl Thomas, commander of the US 7th Fleet, ,described China as "the gorilla in the room". SEACAT.
"It's very important to dispute this sort of thing. I know the gorillas in the room are firing missiles over Taiwan," he said, arguing that China could He added that it would be irresponsible to launch missiles into the high seas from above. Headquartered in Virginia, some of his biggest customers said they were concerned about doing business in Taiwan.
He said companies should start looking into whether they have key talent in the region, hard and soft assets, and financial assets stored within systems in China or Taiwan. said.
"If you're a leader and you're thinking not just about the next 12 or 18 months, but the next decade, you have to think about these things. I don't think the clients are panicking, but I think they're taking it very seriously, and they don't want to repeat what happened between Russia and Ukraine on a larger scale." he told VOA Mandarin by phone.