Ignore the mediocre record. Get past the ugly six-game losing streak in late November and early December.
Creighton is healthy and looking every bit like the Final Four contender it was pegged as this preseason. Ryan Kalkbrenner has found his game, after a non-COVID-19 illness limited him significantly in the early portion of the season, and the pieces have fallen into place.
The 13-8 Bluejays have won seven of their last nine games — six of them by double figures — and treated Big East leader and No. 13 Xavier like it didn’t deserve to share the same court on Saturday in Omaha, Neb. Remember, this team was ranked ninth in the preseason, nearly beat No. 6 Arizona in the Maui Invitational and played 10th-ranked Texas extremely tough in Austin.
What followed was that six-game losing streak, three of which came without Kalkbrenner, creating doubt about the preseason pick to win the Big East. But Creighton has flipped the narrative, finding the form that led so many experts to believe it was a Final Four contender and is now just one game in the loss column off the conference lead.
The 7-foot-1 Kalkbrenner, last year’s Big East Defensive Player of the Year, has been dominant defensively, producing 26 blocked shots over the last seven games and anchoring the 21st-ranked defense by efficiency in the country according to KenPom.com, and the No. 17 offense is hitting its stride. The entire starting five of Kalbrenner, Arthur Kaluma, Trey Alexander, Ryan Nembhard and Baylor Scheierman average in double figures. While Creighton is only shooting 35.1 percent as a team from deep, during this recent stretch they Bluejays are up to 38 percent, and trending in the right direction.
It will be interesting if Creighton continues to perform like this how the selection committee seeds it. Right now, it is a 10-seed in Bracket Matrix, the website which averages out 85 tournament projections. Part of that is the Bluejays have eight losses. But it should be factored in that three of those setbacks — to BYU, Arizona State and No. 16 Marquette — came without Kalkbrenner. With him, they are 13-5, owning victories over Arkansas, Xavier and No. 23 Providence. Their numbers are considerably better across the board with the big man in the lineup. Over these last nine games, Creighton is ranked fourth nationally by the analytics-based website BartTorvik.com, which breaks down individual segments of the season. The Bluejays’ NET rating is an impressive 18, and their 6-7 record in Quad 1 and 2 games is likely to get even better.
This would be a scary eight- or nine-seed. It certainly looks like the team everyone expected to be a March threat.
Built Fordham tough
It was easy to dismiss the robust 12-1 non-conference schedule when you consider Fordham played the worst slate of opponents in the country outside of league play, according to KenPom.com. November and December featured a heavy helping of cupcakes in The Bronx.
Lately, though, the Rams are much harder to ignore. They have now won four straight league games and five of six, vaulting themselves into fourth place in the Atlantic 10, two games behind conference leader Saint Louis. They are coming off consecutive double-digit victories over St. Bonaventure and George Washington, the two teams directly behind them in the standings.
Athletic director Ed Kull made a smart move by elevating Keith Urgo to keep the roster intact after Kyle Neptune left for Villanova, and in his first season as a head coach, Urgo has exceeded expectations. At 5-3 in the Atlantic 10, Fordham is off to its best start to the conference season since opening up 6-2 in 2007.