After cruising through the World Cup thus far in Group B with seven points and a +7 goal differential, England now begins the knockout rounds with a match against Senegal, who finished second in Group A behind the Netherlands.
The Three Lions are a -500 favorite to advance and -190 to win in 90 minutes. Does that price flatter England too much?
Below we preview the World Cup Round of 16 matchup between England and Senegal beginning at 2 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
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England vs. Senegal prediction
On the surface, England’s results in the group stage look terrific. The Three Lions outscored their opposition, 9-2, and posted a +2.9 expected goal differential in three matches against Iran, the USA and Wales. But if you look a little deeper, you’ll notice that all of that damage came against Iran and Wales, two teams that prefer to sit deep and defend in low blocks because they’re weak in the midfield.
England defeated Iran, 6-2, and dominated Wales, 3-0, but against the Americans, the Three Lions struggled in a 0-0 draw. You could make a salient argument that the USMNT was the better side in that matchup, even if the expected goals, which ended 0.8 to 0.6 in favor of England, suggested it was a coin flip.
The key to success for the Americans was in the midfield, where they were able to compete with England’s pivot of Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham. Senegal won’t have dynamic central midfielder Idrisse Gana Gueye, but the Lions of Teranga should offer a lot more competition in the middle of the field than Iran and Canada did. Nampalys Mendy, Pathe Ciss and Papa Gueye aren’t on the same level as Rice and Bellingham, but they should be able to put up more of a fight than what England saw in their two victories.
Additionally, there are some concerns about how England will play this match from a stylistic standpoint. While the Three Lions took the handbrake off against Iran and Wales, they were more tepid against the USMNT. That’s nothing new for this team, as Gareth Southgate prefers to play things closer to the vest against more dangerous opposition, especially when the stakes are high.
The main criticism of Southgate during his tenure is that, despite having more talent than almost every team in the world, his conservative approach allows other teams to stick around against England and punish them if they catch a break or the Three Lions aren’t quite at the races.
Even without Gueye and Sadio Mane, this Senegal side is athletic, quick and talented. They’re in a completely different tier compared to Iran and Wales, and should cause England some of the same problems that they had in a 0-0 result against the USMNT.
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England can certainly come out and impose their will against a less-talented Senegal side, but there are some signals pointing to a pretty close tilt on Sunday. And when you consider that Wales, which is a much worse team than Senegal, closed around this price in their match against England, you can make a decent case that the Lions of Teranga are undervalued based on the spot here. Nobody expects England to get bounced in the Round of 16 by Senegal and that is impacting how this game is being priced.
It’s a bet you lose more often than you win, but Senegal are worth a sprinkle on the three-way moneyline on Sunday.
England vs. Senegal pick
Senegal three-way moneyline +650 (FanDuel)