Confidence can be a fragile thing. You can have a wealth of information and data and trends and probabilities, but you still can have a bad week picking games, or betting games, or selecting fantasy starters.
Since the start of the season, the Madman has been high on the Raiders’ offense. We have been confident it will deliver a fantasy payoff. We still harbor belief that will be so.
But their poor performance thus far has destroyed any confidence that turnaround, or even a spike, will come this week.
Las Vegas has to face the Broncos. Sure, the Denver D doesn’t invoke the type of fear, fantasy or otherwise, as it did in its Von Miller heyday a few years back, but it still has proven tough against opponents — both in real life and in fantasy.
Denver’s opponents have run just 160 plays on the season, the second-lowest total in the league (Bills, 158). The Broncos have allowed just 4.7 yards per play, which is the sixth-best. They have given up just 36 points over three games, also the second-best (Buccaneers, 27).
Now some might want to add: But they didn’t play any good offenses. And that is true. They faced the Seahawks with Geno Smith at QB, the Davis Mills Texans and the 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start this season. None of those matchups strike fear into defensive coordinators.
But here’s the thing: Do the Raiders at this point? Sure, they have some names. Derek Carr has been good in spurts over the course of his career, but no one is scouring film for some big secret of how to stop Derek Carr. Quite often, he finds a way to stop himself.
How about Davante Adams? Everyone knows he is an exceptional talent, so what gives? Why is a guy who has consistently been in the top two among fantasy WRs dropped to 11th, and falling?
Adams had a blockbuster Week 1, third highest among WRs with 30.1 in PPR formats. In two games since, he ranks 41st among WRs. Plus, tight end Darren Waller has just been OK.
Last week, it was Mack Hollins who instead was the main guy, with eight catches for 158 yards and a touchdown. But will he duplicate that career performance? It was just the seventh time in 68 career games in which he had at least 50 yards. What happens if Hunter Renfrow returns?
And that’s addressing the troubles on the Raiders’ side of the ball. Here’s a reminder: The Broncos’ defense has been pretty good. In fact, Denver has allowed 3.4 PPR points per week fewer to WRs than any other team. It is one of the five stingiest versus opposing QBs. RBs don’t fare any better, facing the second-stiffest D versus fantasy RBs.
But hey, at least the Broncos rank in the bottom third against tight ends. So Waller should … well, hopefully not be as TD-dependent as he has been thus far.
One of these weeks, the Raiders are going to pop. Just don’t bet on it being this week.
Big weeks
Rashaad Penny RB, Seahawks, at Lions (FanDuel $6,700/DraftKings $4,900)
The Lions’ defense is the worst in the league vs. opposing fantasy RBs so far, and has even faced the Commanders’ soft ground threat.
D’Onta Foreman RB, Panthers, vs. Cardinals (FD $4,700/DK $4,000)
If CMC misses the game Sunday, we like Foreman for his TD potential more than Chuba Hubbard’s PPR upside — unless you were able to grab Khalil Herbert or Jamaal Williams off waivers earlier this week.
Richie James WR, Giants, vs. Bears (FD $5,500/DK $4,000)
The only other Big Blue WR with double-digit targets this year is Sterling Shepard, who is now out for the season. If Kadarius Toney ever played, we would be screaming about him.
T.J. Hockenson TE, Lions, vs. Seahawks (FD $5,400/DK $4,100)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is out, D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds are questionable, and versatile RB D’Andre Swift is doubtful. Could be a chance for Hockenson (also questionable, but we expect him to play) to show off a bit with added volume.
Small weaks
Jeff Wilson Jr. RB, 49ers, vs. Rams (FD $7,000/DK $5,400)
The Rams have the third-best defense against opposing fantasy RBs, allowing 8.8 fewer per week than the league average.
Justin Jefferson WR, Vikings, at Saints (N/A)
Expect him often to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, as the Saints did last season with some success (Jefferson was just 4-for-55). The Eagles and Lions kept a lid on him the past two weeks.
Christian Kirk WR, Jaguars, at Eagles (FD $7,600/DK $6,600)
Eagles CBs James Bradberry and Darius Slay present difficult matchups for Kirk. We expect some points, so we’re higher on Zay Jones and Marvin Jones Jr. in this matchup.
Garrett Wilson WR, Jets, at Steelers (FD $6,100/DK $5,400)
Will be his first game with Zach Wilson, in Zach’s first game back from a preseason injury, facing a Steelers defense that can generate turnovers in bunches. Give it a week or two first.
Fantasy Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (12 games)
Type: $5 tourney
Top prize: $300K
Pot: $1.8M
Drew’s Crew
QB — Lamar Jackson (Bal, vs. Buf) $8,800
RB — Jamaal Williams (Det, vs. Sea) $7,400
RB — Khalil Herbert (Chi, at NYG) $7,200
WR — Stefon Diggs (Buf, at Bal) $8,700
WR — Isaiah McKenzie (Buf, at Bal) $5,900
WR — Devin Duvernay (Bal, vs. Buf) $5,700
TE — Mark Andrews (Bal, vs. Buf) $8,400
Flex — Robert Tonyan (GB, vs. NE) $4,900
DEF — Raiders (LV, vs. Den) $3,000
Wilk’s Warriors
QB — Jacoby Brissett (Cle, at Atl) $6,800
RB — Jamaal Williams (Det, vs. Sea) $7,400
RB — Saquon Barkley (NYG, vs. Chi) $8,100
WR — Stefon Diggs (Buf, at Bal) $8,700
WR — CeeDee Lamb (Dal, vs. Was) $6,800
WR — Amari Cooper (Cle, at Atl) $7,500
TE — Pat Freiermuth (Pit, vs. NYJ) $5,600
Flex — Breece Hall (NYJ, at Pit) $6,300
DEF — Raiders (LV, vs. Den) $3,000
Season risked: $27
Season winnings: Drew $0, Jarad $0