Minneapolis (CNN Business)Economic uncertainty and concerns about recession still illuminate the strong labor market. No,But investors and the Federal Reserve will carefully analyze the details of Friday's employment report for signs of softening.
Monthly government employment snapshots from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are expected to show continued strength-small but still important, about 272,700 employment increases and unemployment rates.keeps 3.6%, according to estimates from Refinitiv.
This report follows a recent mixed bag of employment data. According to the latest job and turnover survey released on Wednesday, there were 11.3 million jobs in May, job seekers, and historically low-level layoffs.
This is good news for job seekers, but there are also signs that employers are starting to cut. New Employment Reduction Data Released ThursdayChallenger Gray&Christmas Reveals US Employers Announced 32,517 Layoffs in June did. This is the highest, up 58.8% from the same month last year. Monthly total since February 2021. However, total employment cuts in the first half of this year fell 37% from the first half of last year, the lowest level since the record began in 1993.
Separately, on Thursday BLS had a total of 235,000for the first unemployed bill of the week until July 2nd,, of the previous week. It increased by 4,000 from the measured value and reported to be the highest level since mid-January.
The US labor market is clearly not in recession. However, unemployment can be an indicator of delay. In recent weeks, major tech and real estate companies have announced layoffs (Netflix,Tesla,Redfin), or employment plans (). } Meta, Twitter, Apple, etc.) withdraw.
Learn more about Friday's employment data after economists, policy makers, and business leaders have announced this recent layoff and the employment freeze has been untouched for years {42. } May help collect whether it's just an industry-centric fix Growth, company-specific layoffs, or signs of broader weakness.
Historically high inflation has led the Federal Reserve to launchinterest rate hike campaignsto cool the economy, but these efforts cannot be achieved without costs. .. It usually leads to a reduction in personnel.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recognizes that rate hikes can lead to labor market "pain", but if successful, policy decisions An economy that continues to grow while curbing inflation through measures. According to the latest Fed forecastin , the unemployment rate has risen to 4.1% in 2024. Daniel Jao, senior economist at Glassdoor, is working slowly to fill existing jobs. " "This is the first step in a company's anticipation of a recession. Always, if a recession occurs, it can result in a temporary dismissal, but if the recession is mild, a temporary dismissal is possible. I hope it will be done. It will be contained and the increase in layoffs will be less as a result. "
In a broader sense, the US labor market is still characterized by very high demand for workers. Layla O'Kane, senior economist at labor market data company Lightcast, said it was in time.
"We see very high openings and very low separations," she said, referring to the latest JOLTS data. "Currently, companies are still looking for a large number of workers and are trying to fill those positions. I would be surprised if the labor market soon shifts to a turbulent market for workers."
CNN's Nicole Goodkind contributed to this report.