It became Santa's company.
Rapidly melting sea ice has opened a potential new Arctic route across the Arctic. This gives powerful nations easy access to the vast wealth of frozen areas, but also increases the fear of war.
The Arctic Council predicts that sea icewill disappear by 2040 during the summer — will be a major new seasonal passageway. Make it possible. This Transporter Sea Route (TSR) is the fastest way to navigate the region and could spur a surge in mining, drilling and trade over the next quarter century.
The territorial interests have not yet been organized. The United States, Russia, and six other countries (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Norway ) have messed up claims for oil, gas, rare earth minerals and metals in the surrounding area. increase. Power supply Computers, telephones, electric cars, satellites. Meanwhile, China claims to be "close to the Arctic," so China can also benefit from the wealth of the region.
"Today is the energy market and supply chain" rice field. Rebecca Koffler, an intelligence analyst and author ofPutin's Playbook: A Secret Plan to Defeat America in Russia.
"Arctic Circle will be a future battlefield for economic domination and possession of natural resources."
Riding about 2,000 nautical miles, 2012 The new route, which was first crossed in the year, is currently only navigable by high-level icebreakers.
However, if melting ice makes it easier to cross, TSR will offer lower costs and delivery times, especially for Europe and Asia. Tankers and freighters will be able to navigate the globe using TSR in the summer, and are expected to save travel time compared to the waterways that currently embrace the two major coastlines connecting the Arctic and southern ports. ..
"We could see ships being sent just above the Arctic as early as 2035," said Mark Lanthein, a Norwegian Arctic researcher. "Floating sea ice is still dangerous, but the risk is getting lower year by year."
But new passages can also escalate tensions between nations.
Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he "knocked outteeth" of a foreign enemy who challenged his territorial sovereignty. Although he did not specifically name the Arctic Circle, Russia is now collecting a large number of formidable military weapons in the region, including the Poseidon 2M39, a stealth nuclear torpedo called the "superweapon."
"The distance between the Arctic Russia and NATO countries has been reduced to about 100 miles," Koffler added. "And everyone wants control. The U.S. military says we're going to control the region, but Russians have their own strategies. They're the only ones in the Arctic group. Screaming that it will be a non-NATO country, and China has joined the battle. They are trying to use the Arctic Circle as their main route. "
So far, commercial shippers from the United States, Canada and Western Europe, in 2007 It has relied on the widely opened Northwest Route (NWP). The Arctic Sea Route (NSR), launched in 2017, is dominated by Russia.
According to the US Geological Survey, access to areas with 13% of the world's undeveloped oil and 30% of excavable natural gas is increasing.
There are also estimated $ 1 trillion in metals and minerals, from gold and silver to beryllium, cadmium and lithium. All of these are in great demand due to the explosive growth of personal electronics and electro-battery vehicles.
Transportation, mining, drilling and fishing rights have been established along the Arctic coastal waterways of each country, but nothing has been set up in the wider Arctic Circle. And that led to fierce controversy.
In 2015, Russians were on the UN Commission, everything including everything. He said it belonged to them. The high seas from the continental shelf to the North Pole. Greenland makes a similar claim. Canada rejected those discussions. Meanwhile, the United States and Canada are at odds over who controls the NWP.
In any case, the United Nations has no power to decide who gets what. It says that valid but duplicate stakes must be sorted out among competing countries.
On the other hand, Arctic sediments have already enriched all northern countries, and above all Russia.
Moscow's offshore drilling along the Yamal Peninsula, which is flooded with oil and natural gas beneath the ocean floor, has provided the greatest benefits in the region.
"For Russians, the Arctic Circle is their lifeline ". Captain David "Duke" Snyder, a former Canadian Coast Guard director, currently runs Martec Polar Consulting, helping ships navigate the Arctic Circle.
Meanwhile, Canada is raising money at the Mary River mine on Baffin Island, which has piped one of the world's largest iron ore mountains since 2015. The Reddog Zinc Mine in northwestern Alaska has generated a total profit of $ 5 billion since 2005 in local Native American countries.
Russia is also reaching out with a fleet of 50 icebreakers, including one of the best, Vladimir Rusanov. In 2018, it became the first ship to cross the NSR with a hull filled with liquefied natural gas.
"It's absolutely cutting edge," Snyder said.
He has one such ship in the United States. I pointed out that there are only ships. Area — Michael A Healy, a diesel-powered 420-foot cutter, the largest ship in the United States Coast Guard fleet.
There is a reason why former President Donald Trump came up with the idea of buying Greenland from Denmark in 2019(it's for sale) It wasn't done). Greenland has a vast amount of metals and minerals, including gems, neodymium, hard drives, hybrid vehicles, rare earth metals and powerful magnets used in aircraft.
Resource extraction is another issue, but potential mining site scores have been identified across Greenland, the world's largest island. Requires heavy equipment, roads, bridges, deep sea ports and other infrastructure. Only about 56,000 people live in the country.
"Finding what's there isn't that important. It makes it happen," Lantein said.
Greenland, once ruled by Denmark as a colony, Currently self-governing, his own parliamentarian and prime minister, the liberal-oriented Mute Brupp Egede elected in 2021.
However, Denmark manages its foreign policy and defense, funding two-thirds of the year, with revenues of about $ 620 million. In 2013, the Greenland Parliament ended a 25-year ban on uranium and other minerals, allowing Denmark or other approved countries to expand their speculation on rare elements on land.
Still, the Arctic Circle is harsh and far away. The bones continue to freeze. It is cold and dark from early October to early March.
And while warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, according to Snyder, the declining sea ice in the region makes transportation more dangerous in a way. ..
He has now collapsed an ice bridge (a hard, thick mass that has been piled up over the years) that once suppressed "multi-year" ice, and a densely delivered mass of ice. Is said to be carrying to the water area. They have never seen it before.
"Striking one is like hitting a brick wall," Snyder said.
Extremely unpredictable weather poses another threat.
"Early winter freezes can trap ships," he said, and last year 14 Russian ships were trapped in sea ice at the NSR near the Siberian coast, one trapped for a month. Said it was done. "Listen to these predictions of people zooming in the Arctic. It's just not happening."
Additional cost to travel the frozen sea — Weather delays, sky High insurance, icebreaker escorts — limits travel through the NSR to about 30 times a year and NWP voyages to about 12 times a year. He said. According to Snyder, the 25% increase in Arctic transport between 2013 and 2019 was primarily freight to small local cities, not transcontinental railroads.
On the other hand, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is deep in what has been going on for a long time. A friendly and information-sharing relationship between American and Russian researchers, according to Carin Ashjian, a biologist and researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution that brought about the freeze.
Once informally collaborated, exchanging data on topics such as melting ice and migration of fish and mammals, Russian scientists have stopped communicating and established relationships internationally. I no longer attend meetings and other meetings. , She said.
"We can't see each other right now," Ashjian said.