I like what Wins Above Replacement attempts to do, if nothing else than for motivating us to try to think about how we would rate a whole player – hitting, defense and baserunning, in the case of a position player.
But it is just a formula, and though it is a helpful general guide, it should not be seen as definitive.
There is not even accepted computation with the main purveyors: Baseball Reference and Fangraphs often derive different results with the same player.
For example, Baseball Reference’s version liked Isiah Kiner-Falefa (3.0 WAR) and Josh Donaldson (2.3) more last season than the Fangraphs version, which had Kiner-Falefa at 1.3 and Donaldson at 1.6. Baseball Reference saw Kiner-Falefa in 2022 as somewhere between a solid starter and an above-average player and Donaldson as a solid starter while Fangraphs had both as role players with Kiner-Falefa bordering on less than that.
Much of the discrepancy comes from different ways of computing defense.
The eye test would lean strongly toward Fangraphs when it comes to the seasons for those two Yankees, though both systems liked Kiner-Falefa’s defense more than regular viewing of his work would support.
For a contending team in the Yankees’ market, part of the equation has to be whom you trust having the ball hit to them with a one-run lead in the ninth inning at Fenway Park. Kiner-Falefa exhibited a jitteriness with both his glove and throws that worsened in big spots as the season progressed.
Donaldson can get a little sketchy with both at times also, but generally was very good on defense last year. Where he faltered was on offense, especially late in the year and in the postseason.
Donaldson plays with an edge and arrogance that is more tolerable when he is hitting, which he has done most of his career. But he struck out in 27.1 percent of his regular-season plate appearances and in 16 of his 36 postseason plate appearances. There was not nearly enough damage in exchange for so many empty at-bats.
As the Yankees’ powerhouse first half dissolved into more meh play down the stretch, three players the team had acquired over the years from the Twins became the focus of fan abuse: Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa and Aaron Hicks.
And in a flip-flop, Joey Gallo, the player who was most clobbered by the crowd even during the feel-good early months, signed in the offseason with Minnesota.
The acquisitions of Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt as last spring training began currently stands as a blight on Brian Cashman’s record. Not for what he gave up. Gio Urshela is a good player, but not someone whose absence is devastating. Gary Sanchez doesn’t even have a major league job yet for this season.
No, this is more about opportunity costs. The Yankees’ faulty belief in Kiner-Falefa prevented them from seeking a replacement during last season, which could have included summoning and playing Oswald Peraza much sooner.
The presence of Donaldson and the $25 million he counts toward the luxury-tax payroll prevented the Yankees from other options as Hal Steinbrenner created the artificial payroll limit of staying under $293 million – the utmost tax threshold. That all four Twins terrors remain on the 40-man roster means that there could be rewrite – or more blight.
I thought it might be fun to put a few over/under numbers on these players and the others the Yankees have obtained since the beginning of last year in what mainly has been a hail of ineffective moves to date.
How these players do could impact where the Yankees finish in a tough AL East:
1. Ben Rortvedt: Over/under 0.5 major league games played
It is easy to forget now that Rortvedt was a key part of the trade with the Twins. The Yankees believed strongly in his defense at catcher, and hoped his lefty bat might offer some lineup diversity.
Instead, he suffered an oblique injury in spring training. The Yankees acted quickly by trading for Jose Trevino, who ended up winning a Platinum Glove award.
Rortvedt made it to the majors for a few days last year, but never got into a game. He incurred an aneurysm this year that led to loss of circulation in a finger. He again will miss time, which means even if there is an injury to Trevino or Kyle Higashioka, Rortvedt might not be there to step in.
The Yankees signed veterans Nick Ciuffo and Jose Godoy to provide depth, and liked what they saw defensively from Carlos Narvaez in spring training.
2. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Over/under 99.5 plate appearances
He was sixth on the team last year with 531 plate appearances. For him to get even half that many this year as a Yankee (key words there: “as a Yankee”) likely would mean disaster struck the team in injury or performance.
Kiner-Falefa always was the odd man out in the shortstop competition. Unless both were atrocious in the spring, either Peraza or Anthony Volpe was going to be the shortstop.
Even now with Volpe winning the job, it is possible Oswaldo Cabrera will play shortstop when Volpe is given an off-day. And if Volpe struggles or suffers an injury, Peraza will be summoned from Triple-A.
Aaron Boone is going to have to figure out how to get at-bats for Cabrera, Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres at second base and third. Cabrera will play outfield as well, so even Kiner-Falefa’s stint playing center field during the spring does not assure him of much playing time.
And there always is the possibility of a trade away from the Yankees at some point.
3. Josh Donaldson/Aaron Hicks: Over/under June 1 still on the Yankees roster
To date, the Yankees have not shown the tolerance to chow down on money like the Steve Cohen Mets, who at this moment will be charged more than $31 million (for luxury-tax purposes) in dead money for Robinson Cano, James McCann and Darin Ruf.
Donaldson is owed $27 million between his 2023 salary and 2024 buyout. Hicks still has three years at $30.5 million left.
Boone has needed little prompting to say strongly that Donaldson will have a rebound year. It is not an outrageous claim.
Donaldson was good in 2021, and is a prideful player with a strong track record. I think there is a 25-30 percent chance he has a 25-homer, .750-plus OPS season with strong defense.
But what if the beginning of 2023 looks like the end of 2022? What is the tolerance then? The Yankees could play LeMahieu as the primary third baseman, though that comes with a risk that overplaying him may lead to a recurrence of the foot injury that doomed LeMahieu’s second half last season.
Boone has not championed Hicks like he has Donaldson. Boone told me he envisions the switch-hitting Hicks playing against most righty starters. He has retained his plate discipline. But the power and speed are big questions, as is his defense and ability to play at Yankee Stadium, where Hicks was cowed last year.
Are Donaldson and Hicks really going to both make it to the finish line as Yankees this year? Fans don’t even like that they made the starting blocks.
4. Tommy Kahnle: Over/under 12 ⅔ innings
In the spring, Kahnle had a slow-recovering case of tendinitis after being signed to a two-year, $11 million pact in the offseason. It is an injury he has dealt with previously. But he only has thrown 13 ⅔ combined regular-season innings over the past three seasons.
The Yankees had hoped the righty’s changeup would be a weapon against lefty hitters and alleviate some of the concern of having just one lefty reliever (Wandy Peralta).
5. Frankie Montas: Over/under 2.5 starts
Montas underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month, and will not even pick up a ball to throw before mid-to-late May. In the ideal situation for the looming free agent and the Yankees, he comes back to make 10-12 late-season starts. But his time with the Yankees, to date, hardly has been ideal.
6. Harrison Bader: Over/under Jordan Montgomery’s WAR
This is one of those trades that already has volleyed back and forth for who has won it. The Cardinals looked great early as Montgomery had an initial whirl around the NL late last season in which he pitched as well as ever while Bader recuperated from a foot injury. Then Bader went off with five homers in nine playoff games.
We are back on familiar ground: Montgomery is in the Cardinals rotation. Bader (oblique) is injured.
The Yankees hope to have Bader back by late April and then watch him deliver a season of 15 homers, 15 steals (maybe more with the new rules) and Gold Glove defense in center. Will he stay healthy enough to do that? Both Bader and Montgomery are free agents after the season.
Comparing WAR between pitchers and hitters is imperfect and is best used for just fake gambling like here. And, again, we will have to decide which WAR to use. Montgomery was at 2.7 WAR via Fangraphs last year and 1.7 with Baseball Reference, and Bader was 1.5 and 1.1, respectively. For the purposes of this exercise, let’s use Baseball Reference.
7. Carlos Rodon: Over/under 15.5 starts
Rodon is working his way back from a muscle strain in his left (pitching) forearm. He has been durable the past two seasons, but that is not his history.
It also is not the history of Luis Severino. In the best Yankees case, both are back a few weeks into the season and unleashing their power stuff behind Gerrit Cole.
The difference between Rodon and Severino combining for 30 starts or 40 starts or 50 starts could be the difference in whether the Yankees finish third, second or first in the AL East.