The best free-agent shortstop class ever is in the middle of the first season under a new contract.
So, of course, it's time to hold more free agent shortstop classes than ever before.
The last shortstop class lost some vitality as Francisco Lindor signed a record extension of his position before the year of his walk. Moreover, it was always strong money for Marcus Semien to stay on second base instead of returning to shortstop. What we couldn't see coming was that Trevor Story also ended on second base.
But that could be a temporary gap in the year before he returned to shortstop. This is because it is almost certain that Xander Bogaerts will opt out at the end of the season and will resume shortstops in the story unless Bogaerts re-signs with Boston.
But that's a familiar story. Both Javier Baez and Trea Turner were traded last July and switched to second base. Dodgers and Turner because Corey Seager was there. Baez signed with the Tigers for six years as their shortstop for $ 140 million. Turner returned to short when Seger signed the Rangers for $ 325 million for 10 years. The Rangers also played second in Semien for $ 175 million for seven years.
In total, Baez, Seager, Semien, Story and Carlos Correa are guaranteed $ 885.3 million. But everything is possible except to guarantee that the total is low. With the exception of catastrophic injuries, Corea opts out of his last two years and pays the Twins $ 70.2 million to pay. It will send him back to the market with Bogaerts, Turner and Dansby Swanson.
At the end of the weekend, Swanson wins above Replace (Fangraphs) 9 It became the rank. Bogaerts finished 10th, Turner 15th, and Correa finished 7th last year in 67th in 2022, playing with finger injuries and COVID-19 in 48 of Minnesota's first 71 games. He's a pretty good bet to finish much higher by the end of the season — in the first 13 games from the COVID list, Corea had 1.043 OPS.
Bogaerts, Corea, Swanson and Turner are expected to perform well in the future market. However, there are many hurdles:
1. The money spent on shortstops so far has not been rewarded.
To include Fernando Tatis Jr. and Lindeau, we need to extend last year's class a bit more. Tatis received a $ 340 million extension from the Padres for 14 years before last season. He finished third in the NLMVP in 2021, but continued to suffer injuries. Then, in the off-season, Tatis broke his left wrist. He hasn't played this season yet and wasn't even allowed to swing at the beginning of the weekend.
Lindo has a poor first season with Mets and is better in the second year ($ 341 million extension for the first time in 10 years), butStill performed better than Cleveland Andres Jimenez, a key player Mets moved in Lindo's trade.
Story's OPS-plus decreased by 4 points from 2021 to 2022, Seager decreased by 29 points, Baez decreased by 36 points, and Semien decreased by 45 points. The only up was Correa (plus 9), but (again) he missed about a third of the season.
Baez and (especially) Semien have been stirring from a terrifying start. The story was a slumping roller coaster in the miserable April, the ferocious May and June. Seager was steadily doing well, but far from $ 325 million.
2. In particular, it should be remembered that Correa and Story found it difficult to find a market they liked last season.
Baez, Semien and Seger used teams (Tigers, Rangers) who were trying to keep the story away from a series of non-competitors. Due to the meh performance by the signed shortstop, the story of these teams has not changed. Will it scare the team for the next class?
In addition, you need to find the next team to be in Detroit and Texas. It will not be Baltimore, Cincinnati, Oakland or Pittsburgh. Colorado and Arizona can almost certainly be eliminated. Washington probably has new ownership and can play big, but may save huge amounts of money to maintain Juan Soto. Kansas City has multiple shortstop options. In particular, Bobby Witt Jr. Seattle has a long-term commitment to J.P. Crawford.
Current teams less than .500 that can be imagined to be a big success as shortstops This is the Cubs. They talked to Baez and Correa this past offseason, so in theory they have the cash and desire to get the type that makes a difference in that position.
The Braves (Swanson), Dodgers (Turner), Red Sox (Bogaerts) all need to keep shortstop or find the answer. For example, the Dodgers could move Gavin Lux short and try to extend Walker Buehler and Jose Urias. Phillies and Angels are tied up a lot of money elsewhere, and Angels have to think about Shohei Ohtani's extension. The Yankees have been criticized for not going to big shortstops, but at a pace of 120 wins they can save money to extend Aaron Judge without spending too much there.
The Blue Jays are already considering removing Bo Bichette from the shortstop, and the White Sox can think of the same thing as Tim Anderson.
3. What is the impact of young players?
The Astros did not boldly participate in the story because they believed in Jeremy Peña, who restricted bids to maintain Correa and respected his faith. The Yankees believed that Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe were close to two major league shortstops.
Consider five of MLB.com's top 10 prospects to be shortstops: Volpe, CJ Abrams (Padres), Marco Luciano (Giants), Noelvi Marte (Mariners), Marcelo Mayer ( Red Sox) — And Mayer alone isn't going to be in the majors by next year. The Top 50 has 7 more shortstops and the Top 75 has 6 more shortstops. Of course, not everything succeeds or succeeds at a high level. However, many organizations believe that there are low-cost solutions that are close to major (Wit and Oneil Cruz in Pittsburgh have already graduated from the Top 25 of the preseason).
In short, the next class will be star-studded again. Will the former free agent class and future prospect class hurt the future market?