NFC Championship Game prediction: Eagles-49ers picks against the spread

Here we go with NFL Championship Weekend, featuring four excellent teams that have made it to this level and beyond in recent years.

The NFC battle pits the Eagles, who still have a handful of players from their Super Bowl LII title team, against the 49ers, who are in this game for the second season in a row and third time in four years in the Kyle Shanahan regime. In 2019-20, they blew out the Packers, 37-20, before losing to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV.

The AFC Championship is a rematch of the Bengals’ 27-24 overtime victory over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last season. Joe Burrow and Co. went on to lose Super Bowl LV by three points to the Rams. This is the fifth season in a row Chiefs coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have hosted the title game. They went 2-2 in the first four and have one Super Bowl title to show for what still could become a dynasty.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) over San Francisco 49ers; Under 46.5

Sometimes it takes a while to figure out you have made a horrible mistake. Other times, you know right away. Last week’s Giants-Eagles game was a perfect illustration of the latter. On the second snap of the night, Jalen Hurts launched a deep ball to DeVonta Smith for 40 yards, and as Warner Wolf used to say on New York TV sportscasts in the 1970s and ’80s, you could have turned your sets off right there.

Hurts showed the Giants his ailing shoulder was at least good enough and forced them immediately to back off the box and defend downfield. Hurts ended up with a modest 154 yards passing, and he wasn’t his normal self as a running weapon, taking off just nine times for 34 yards. Yet Hurts’ functional dual threat combined with Philadelphia’s all-world offensive line allowed running backs Kenneth Gainwell (12 carries, 112 yards, 9.3 yards per carry) and Miles Sanders (17 carries, 90 yards, 5.3 ypc) to carve through the Giants’ defense almost at will.

Three of the Eagles who remain from their Super Bowl championship team play on that offensive line — center Jason Kelce, right guard Isaac Seumalo and right tackle Lane Johnson. The other holdovers are defensive linemen Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox, kicker Jake Elliott and long snapper Rick Lovato.

The 49ers bring a 12-game winning streak to South Philly and boast the No. 1 defense in the NFL in yardage allowed in the regular season (the Eagles were No. 2 in that statistic). Eight of those victories have been led by rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, the 2022 draft’s Mr. Irrelevant as the final selection.

Purdy had a magical start to his career, as the 49ers scored at least 33 points in six of his first seven games. Last week, the Cowboys’ strong defense turned that game into a bit of a street brawl, and San Francisco prevailed, 19-12, largely because Purdy played a turnover-free game and Dallas’ Dak Prescott threw two devastating interceptions.

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Also, the Eagles have almost a full day of extra rest with no travel, while the 49ers have to trek across the country. That small advantage for the Eagles is muted a bit because the 49ers will be getting a nice break with the weather. The forecast is for a high of 54 degrees and low of 40 after sundown with clouds but little or no rain. It could be a heck of lot worse on Pattison and South Broad in late January.

The selection here is the Eagles minus the points, though I do fear this matchup is so close that even this small spread might come into play. During Purdy’s great streak, just two of the games have come on the road, and here he faces a defense that had 70 sacks in 2022, 15 more than the next highest total. The Eagles backed that up with five sacks of the mobile Daniel Jones last week. I think the combination of the intense pass rush and the hostile crowd will take a toll on the newbie.

Eagles, 23-16

Last week: 4-4. 2-2 sides and 2-2 totals