The 2022 regular season was neither the best nor the worst of times for the NFL picks that resided each week in this space. The .515 winning overall winning percentage didn’t crack the top half of The Post’s standings, as the first five all “beat the vig” at .533 or higher, led by Paul Schwartz’s .563 masterpiece. I fared better in Best Bets at .565, but that left me one game behind the champ, Stitches.
The job at hand now is to try to defend my postseason title from a year ago, when the sides and totals came through at a very profitable 18-8 mark.
Here we go with Super Wild Card Weekend!
All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9.5) over Seattle Seahawks: Under 42.5 points (BetMGM)
The postseason opens with a pretty hefty number for a divisional matchup that does not involve an injured starting quarterback, as two games below do.
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The 49ers have won 10 in a row after a 3-4 start, the last six of those coming after “Mr. Irrelevant” rookie Brock Purdy replaced the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. All the 49ers have done in Purdy’s starts is score 33, 35, 21, 37, 37 and 38 points. The outlier was the 21-13 win at Seattle on Dec. 15, a result which would not cover this spread. In Purdy’s four home games, though, the 49ers have scored at least 33 points and won by at least 16 points.
San Francisco may not be a top seed and having to play this week makes its Super Bowl road harder. But everywhere you look there’s a star — from Christian McCaffrey to Deebo Samuel to Nick Bosa and more.
Geno Smith has had a revelatory rebirth but still managed to put up just 10 points per game in two losses to the 49ers, who are uncharacteristically healthy. I’ll try to slip below the low total, as both meetings netted 34 points, and the Santa Clara forecast calls for wet and windy conditions.
Score prediction: 49ers, 31-10
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+2) over Los Angeles Chargers: Over 47.5 (BetMGM)
The Chargers were my pick to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season, but now I’m drawn to the appealing coach-QB combo of Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence after the Jaguars’ hot finish.
That surge included an overtime win over the Cowboys, a no-doubt prime-timer over the Jets and a Week 18 survival against the Titans to make the playoffs. Jacksonville’s defense became a factor in the final three must-win games, allowing 7.3 ppg in those.
But you have to go way back to Sept. 25, before the Jaguars’ terrible five-game skid, to find a 38-10 win over this same Chargers team at L.A.’s SoFi Stadium. The Jaguars owned a 151-26 edge in rushing yards and 38:27 to 21:33 advantage in time of possession.
The sideline battle could be a mismatch here, with Super Bowl winner Pederson going up against Brandon Staley, coaching in his first playoff game.
Score prediction: Jaguars, 27-23