Thu, 30 Jun 22 18:16:59 +0000

Opinion: What will the five years after Zero Corona look like?

Yanzhong Huangis a Senior Fellow of Global Health in the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor at the Seton Hall University School. Council on Foreign Relations specializing in Asia. He is the author of "Toxic Politics: China's Environmental Crisis and Challenges to the Chinese State". The views expressed here are his own. Read moreOpinionson CNN.

(CNN)For those disappointed with China's zero corona policy, Beijing's Communist leader Cai Qi said this week and the city's policy for the next five years. Maintain ""

Cai Qi's original report did not seem to contain the phrase, and government censors immediately removed the misleading citation, but the big news backlash caused by social media was China's zero. It raises the question of whether we are serious about pursuing. Covid as a long-term strategy (let's call it "Long Zero-Covid"). If so, how feasible it is-and what does it mean for China and the world?

As Chinese government officials have repeatedly said, the Dynamic Zero Corona Strategy does not require absolute zero infection. Instead, it focuses on breaking the local transmission chain and controlling the situation in the shortest possible time after a local relapse or outbreak is detected.

However, with the advent and worldwide spread of new subvariants that can evade immunity caused by vaccination and previous infections, the victory over the virus under zero corona is short-lived.

Continuing to face the threat of a virus attacking China justifies applying the strategy until the end of the pandemic (which is not immediately visible).

Indeed, the Omicron variant seems to be less severe than the original variant. Shanghai recorded a Covid-19 case fatality rate of0.1% during April 1st May 31st is at the same level as seasonal influenza.

Nonetheless, top state media and government epidemiologists have emphasized the dangers of this variant, and the worst-case scenario (characterized by mass mortality and the collapse of the hospital system) is: It still defines an official description of the potential. The result of pivoting away from the Zero Corona policy.

Convinced that Top Brass will cling to Zero after witnessing the Covid-19catastrophe in Hong Kong and the surge in cases in neighboring East Asian countries after leaving Zero Corona. Seems to be-until the pandemic is over (or at least until truly effective vaccines or treatments are widely available), the only viable approach to avoid the worst scenarios.

And even if China succeeds in achieving its objectives, it can claim the success of the pandemic response and show the superiority of the political system. During a visit to Wuhan on Tuesday, President Xi Jinping said that China's Covid-19 response was the most economical and effective in the world, and the country "has the ability and strength to carry out a dynamic zero coronavirus until then." I have. " Achieve the final victory.

How feasible is the Zero Corona policy? This policy has significant socio-economic costs, and it is undisputed thatis becoming less and less popular among the Chinese middle class. But in countries where powers are not accountable to the public, popularity is rarely the main driver of the public policy process.

The one-child policywas developed despite the cruel violation of the reproductive freedom that the Chinese people have enjoyed for thousands of years. In fact, the original proposal made to members of the Communist Party and the Youth League in 1980 was quickly institutionalized and internalized as a "basic national policy" that would last for the next 36 years.

Similarly, China is moving to routine pandemic measures through regular PCR tests and rigorous health checks in residential and public areas. The ability to stop Covid-19 infections in Shanghai and Beijing is the best decision maker to have sufficient resilience and wisdom to keep the virus away, no matter how expensive and difficult the Chinese state may be. Brings the trust of.

Other developments also facilitate the pursuit of a long zero-corona policy. Despite growing social dissatisfaction in big cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, public support for this policy appears to remain strong in small cities and rural areas (with very limited access to alternative information). is.

Many Chinese have zero corona because of the unhealthy consequences of infection (eg, subject to stigma and strict quarantine and quarantine), as well as the promised health benefits. I do not oppose. ..

Over time, the marginal cost of implementing a strategy is the accessibility to test facilities, the sharp drop in the cost of conducting high-volume tests, and the high-tech tools and social forces in monitoring. Larger dependencies can make it more acceptable. People's movements and internalization of the Zero Corona policy in Chinese society.

However, the impact of the long Zero-COVID policy on socio-political, economic and foreign policy can be far more serious and lasting than the government thinks.

When people realize that the Zero-COVID policy is no longer a temporary phenomenon, they adapt to change by readjusting expectations and behavioral patterns. The former editor-in-chief of Global Timesadmittedafter learning that the zero coronavirus could continue in Beijing. That was the case in the first half of this year.

Citizens can discount the future even more and take a desperate attitude. Mental health problemsthat have already been exacerbated by the pandemic in China will surely be exacerbated by the long Zero Corona policy. At the same time, more people will be bold to engage in risk-taking actions and may even turn their backs on the government. The government's refusal to withdraw from the Zero-COVID policy could accelerate the tendency of people to leave thesystem and migrate. Increased uncertainty and the risk of doing business in China can also reduce the presence of investors in China and lead to a mass outflow of expatriates.

Meanwhile, the long Zero-COVID policy discourages foreigners from visiting China even if the government relaxesimmigration requirementsin response, China becomes more inward. And anotherhermitage kingdom

And as misunderstandings and distrust between China and the West grow, the collapse of the bamboo curtain is no longer a distant reality.