According to a new study by cybersecurity firm Recorded Future, Russia's influential merchants will disagree and undermine Western efforts to support Ukraine. It seems to be focusing on it.
You can find traces of Russia's influence operations targeting many countries that have supported Ukraine with weapons, financial support, or other aid, but the hardest efforts are probably the most. Vulnerable Kremlin.
"We believe France, Germany, Poland and Turkey are the main targets of this influence story based on the observed influence activities,"Recorded Future announced Thursday. Said in the report. The authors of the
report said they made decisions based on how the various Russian-backed influence networks all seem to coalesce around a particular subject. I did. 4 countries.
"They have a pretty good pulse on what some of these issues are, or what some of these concerns are 100 days after this (war)." Brian Liston, Senior Cyber Threat Intelligence Analyst at Recorded Future, said VOA.
And while it is difficult to determine the extent to which these Russian influential operations are "missing" in the pro-Ukrainian coalition, the Kremlin is likely to be patient. Stated.
"They see this as an opportunity to delve into some of these disagreements and dissatisfactions and hope to gradually dismantle the coalition and hopefully collapse." He said.
This approach is one that US authorities have seen before.
Earlier this year, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that "malicious foreign powers," including Russia, were pulling pages from the Kremlin's Election Interference Playbook and trying to expand the division of American society again. did.
The ministry's latest state terrorism advisory system bulletin, published last month, reflects concerns about Russia and could soon intensify Moscow's disinformation campaign for the 2022 midterm elections. Further warned.
Recorded Future said Russia could lay a similar foundation in France, Germany, Poland and Turkey.
"Attempts to arouse internal dissatisfaction with the country's existing leadership are of political milestones specific to the election cycle and other targets, hoping to predict candidates, political parties, or platforms. In the meantime, it is more in line with, or at least sharpened against, Russia's strategic goals in Ukraine, which are very likely to precede future attempts to engage in malicious influence. " ..
In each case, Russian-backed media outlets, influencers and troll farms have adjusted their messages in the hope of increasing followers among their major audiences.
"(In France) specifically, not going too far, or President Macron (Emmanuel) wants to negotiate with Russia," Liston said.
Recorded Future has two Russian influence campaigns in Germany, perhaps too much for the country to do enough to support Ukraine. Dive into the debate about what is happening and discover that it is calling for caution against Ukrainian refugees entering the country.
In Turkey, Russian agents have discovered a number of so-called wedge problems to their liking.
From late May, Recorded Future discovers several examples of pro-Russian media and pro-Russian influence networks that arouse Turkey's concerns about Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Did. Multiple articles focusing on the imposition of Finnish and Swedish weapons on Turkey and the demand by Turkey for both countries to hand over individuals involved in the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
In addition, Recorded Future amplifies Turkey's concerns as Russian trawl farm known as Cyberfront Z describes Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as dead against NATO expansion. He said he spread the meme with a telegram designed to do.
At the same time, Russian-backed outlets such as Sputnik and Red Spring Information Agency target Turkey's tensions with Greece and Ankara on Greek activities in the disputed areas of the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Expressed concern.
Russia's influential operations against Poland have, in the meantime, sought to arouse historical tensions. According to the
report, one of the more prominent themes is "Poland favors taking advantage of Russia's war with Ukraine to historically bring Poland's land back under control. Plans to use. "
The report states that elements of the alleged plot use a quote from the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency to support Russia's state in late April. Discovered that it was disseminated by Media Outlet RT.
Further, according to Recorded Future, in support of this claim, the May pro-Russian Telegram account stated that Polish and Lithuanian troops were planning an invasion later in the month. Started distributing the document shown (probably forged). According to Recorded Future, intrusion plans soon continued on other Russian media sites such as RIA Novosti and TV Zvezda.
The findings also seem to give credibility to the potential success of Ukrainian intelligence. , Ukraine's security forces have released a Russian intelligence note allegedly detailing plans to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine in an information war.
"We saw a lot of duplication," Recorded Future's Liston told VOA. Internal dissatisfaction, economic concerns, trying to link Ukraine to the origin of Nazism, fascism. "
" Based on what we've already seen and in the notes from these sources, we had a pretty good one I felt this was a real analytical promotional manual. " Said.