This was not how the season was supposed to go for the Ottawa Senators. After a splashy offseason that saw Ottawa trade for Alex DeBrincat and sign Claude Giroux, the hype surrounding the Senators was louder than it had been in years.
But then the NHL season started, and all the positivity quickly dissipated as the Senators got off to another slow start. Ottawa is in last place in the Atlantic Division with a 10-14-1 record.
Are there any signs that things may turn around for the Sens against the Stars at 8:30 p.m. ET in Dallas, Texas, on Thursday?
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Perhaps the most bewildering part of Ottawa’s early season struggles is that its offense has not been up to snuff. The Senators are built to score with a top-six that features Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson, and Alex DeBrincat, but Ottawa is averaging just 3.08 goals per game, which is good enough for 18th in the NHL.
Goals have been particularly tough to come by in their last 10 games, as the Sens are putting up just 2.6 goals on average in that span.
The good news is that Ottawa’s predictive metrics and expected indicators look more encouraging than its actual results. The Sens are averaging 2.92 expected goals per 60 minutes and 12.4 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 contests, but their 3.8 shooting percentage at 5-on-5 (which is easily the worst mark in the NHL over this span) is weighing down their results.
Coming into the season, Ottawa’s defense and goaltending looked like they would be the team’s Achilles’ heel, but the general consensus was that this team would be able to score enough to help paper over some of those flaws. That hasn’t been the case lately, but they should start to positively regress as this season goes on.
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On the other hand, the Dallas Stars are a team that is likely to trend in the other direction. Dallas is a solid team that tilts the ice in the right direction generally, but the Stars pace the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage and their 3.11 goals per 60 minutes is almost a half-goal better than their 2.72 xGF/60.
It’s fair to argue that the Stars have one of the best scoring lines in the NHL, so they’ll always outscore their underlying numbers, but if the Sens can contain the Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski line, they’ll have a decent chance of pulling the upset.
The Senators have severely underwhelmed relative to their preseason expectations, but this is a good buy-low opportunity on a team that should start trending in the right direction.
Senators vs. Stars pick
Ottawa Senators +165 (FanDuel)