Tottenham Hotspur will need to pick themselves right back up after losing to Arsenal, 3-1, in the North London Derby over the weekend. The Spurs were outplayed by their eternal rivals, but the game was decided by a moment of magic from Arsenal and a mistake from Tottenham’s goalkeeper, Hugo Lloris. The outlook on Tottenham shouldn’t change much after losing to a really strong outfit on the road.
But as often is the case in betting, the market has soured a little bit on Spurs after the loss. Tottenham currently sits as a +110 road favorite against Frankfurt on Tuesday afternoon in the Champions League.
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Tottenham vs. Frankfurt prediction: Tottenham Hotspur +110 (FanDuel)
While the market may have dipped a little bit on Tottenham, it seems to be gaining some confidence in Frankfurt after the Eagles picked up a 2-0 win over Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Saturday. Frankfurt has now won three matches in a row and sits in sixth place in the Bundesliga with a 4-2-2 record.
But if you look under the hood, Frankfurt’s success seems to involve some smoke and mirrors. Through eight matches in Germany, Frankfurt has scored 16 goals and allowed 13, but their underlying numbers paint them as an average Bundesliga side. They have a -0.3 expected goal differential, and they rank ninth in their domestic league in preventing expected goals. Add in the fact that the Bundesliga is trending down, and the gap between the German top flight and the Premier League is perhaps wider than ever, and you can see why Tottenham may be able to storm this match.
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And don’t forget, this team finished 11th in the Bundesliga but qualified for the Champions League because it won the Europa League on penalty kicks against Rangers last spring.
Not only is Frankfurt pretty much an average Bundesliga team in a competition that features the best teams in the world, but they will likely have stylistic issues against Spurs, as well.
Tottenham is perhaps the world’s most clinical counter-attacking side and prefers to wait out opponents and spring into action. That style should work against a high-event Frankfurt side that ranks second in the Bundesliga in total goals per match.
Winning on the road in the Champions League is not an easy thing to do, but Spurs are a much better side than Frankfurt, and the stylistic matchup also favors the visitors.
The pick: Tottenham Hotspur +110 (FanDuel)