On the night of Ron DeSantis’ campaign rollout, I was at a dinner talking politics with one of his supporters. As the man prepared to leave, he joked that “I’m going home to watch Ron DeSanctimonious.” Laughing and pointing to his head, the supporter said, “See, he’s even up here.”
“He” is Donald Trump, and he is in the head of every Republican voter and candidate. That’s what 800-pound gorillas do.
“DeSanctimonious” is, of course, Trump’s favorite put-down tag for the Florida governor. The mocking technique has served Trump well, just ask “low energy” Jeb Bush.
But DeSantis is no Jeb Bush and while it’s too soon to predict the outcome of a nomination race that will last a year, it’s certain that Trump is facing the best-funded, most successful and most prepared GOP opponent he’s ever faced.
For a host of reasons, including that Trump soon will turn 77 and his schtick is tired while DeSantis is a party superstar at just 44 and eager for a fight, insulting nicknames aren’t going to do the trick this time.
In fact, to judge by DeSantis’ first days on the trail, he aims to flip the script and force Trump to play defense about his White House record. It’s a bold move that aims to undercut Trump’s claims of being a successful president despite being unfairly hounded by the media and Democrats.
Counterpunch
Already the challenger is accusing the former president of being a big contributor to the enormous national debt, saying, “We’re $31 trillion in debt — and he added almost $8 trillion in debt in just four years as president.”
He also slammed Trump’s support for COVID lockdowns, saying “he turned the country over to [Dr. Anthony] Fauci in March of 2020 that destroyed millions of people’s lives.”
To top it off, DeSantis accused Trump of “moving to the left,” fighting words in a party where conservative voters dominate primaries.
Judging from its erratic responses, Trump’s camp seems to have been caught off-guard by the direct attacks.
The former president hit back by saying New York’s scandal-plagued ex-governor, Andrew Cuomo, handled COVID better than DeSantis, a charge the Florida governor called “very bizarre.”
As the world knows, DeSantis’ Twitter announcement was marred by glitches, prompting gleeful declarations from Trump and Dems that the event was a disaster and a lasting metaphor for the campaign.
Yet the truth is that, glitches aside, tens of millions of people eventually heard or saw the conversation with Elon Musk and subsequent DeSantis ads and interviews.
The campaign’s goal of being everywhere on Day One was reached — as was the goal of first-day fundraising. The $8.2 million haul was nearly $2 million more than Joe Biden’s $6.3 million in 2019.
These are mere skirmishes, however, and Trump remains a heavy favorite to win the war for the nomination and get a rematch with Biden in the general election.
A 2020 do-over is not what most voters want, but Biden and Trump have the biggest blocs of support in their parties.
Although the GOP field of candidates is larger because there is no incumbent, the primary is, even at this early stage, a two-person race. The likelihood of someone other than Trump or DeSantis winning is slim at best.
Covering the field
For Trump, the more opponents the merrier, because he believes most of his vote share is secure and having four or five or six other rivals split the opposition vote makes it harder for DeSantis to come out on top in the hunt for delegates.
But exactly how much of Trump’s vote is immune to the siren songs of others is the key question of the campaign.
Is it the entire 50% or so that Trump is getting in most polls? Or is it closer to the 25% that many Republicans assume, including some in the DeSantis camp?
The answer is crucial because nearly all polls suggest Trump has the nomination locked up if he can keep all or nearly all of the support he has.
Consider that in national surveys, and those in the early states, Trump’s lead is at least 20 points and in some cases, twice that. For example, in six recent national polls, Trump’s margin over DeSantis ranges from 21 to 45 points and averages 33 points.
In Iowa, where the caucus system is an important bellwether, a recent poll has Trump ahead by 42 points.
His lead in the first primary, in New Hampshire, is 21 points and in the second, in South Carolina, it’s 25 points.
DeSantis has yet to break 30% in any recent poll.
Moreover, the gap between them has widened, with more voters moving to Trump as his legal entanglements grew more serious. If the phenomenon holds, the completion of continuing investigations could boost Trump even more.
One example: A Manhattan felony trial stemming from hush money payments to Stormy Daniels is scheduled for next March — the height of primary season.
None of this is a secret to DeSantis, and his decision to take on Trump now reflects a self-confidence that never seems to flag. After completing a single term as governor, he got plenty of advice that he wait four more years before seeking the White House.
Instead, his landslide re-election victory, after the thinnest of margins in his first statewide win, fueled DeSantis’ conviction that his time is now. He’s got a plan, a hot hand and he’s determined to play it.
His popularity helped Florida Republicans win veto-proof margins in the state Legislature and enabled him to pass major reforms. Education was a top focus, and he expanded school choice and parental rights while limiting leftist indoctrination. His line that “Florida is where woke goes to die” sums up his attitude and his agenda.
Culture wars, even in solid red states, can have negative consequences, and two issues could haunt him.
His bitter feud with Disney and his signature on a bill allowing most abortions only through the first six weeks already are targets for Trump, and other candidates can be expected to pile on. Should he get to the general election, those items would be even fatter targets.
For now, DeSantis has plans and money to sustain him for battle through at least Super Tuesday, which is March 5 of next year. If he’s doing well and scoring delegates, his polls will rise and money follows polls.
In addition to the direct donations he is collecting, a soft-money super PAC named Never Back Down is aiming to raise and spend $200 million, including $80 million transferred from the governor’s state account.
The group is reportedly hiring door-to-door canvassers in 18 states and aims to contact every possible DeSantis supporter at least four times in the first four states.
That’s an ambitious, Democrat-like ground game, and despite the polls, Trump shouldn’t underestimate what he’s up against. He’s never faced a Republican like Ron DeSantis.