Thanks to a dropped pass in the end zone and a missed field goal, the ugly underdog last week, Akron +47.5 against Tennessee, didn’t come through for us. But one painful loss doesn’t mean we just abandon ship and just write off every ugly pooch on the board.
No, sir. We’re right back on the horse this week. And wouldn’t you know, we’ve got our eyes on another team out of the MAC.
With three wins on the season, including road victories at Purdue and Auburn, Penn State is off and running in 2022. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 14 nationally and could crack the Top 10 by the time they travel to Michigan on Oct. 15.
Penn State’s momentum has shown up in the betting market as the Nittany Lions have moved from -24.5 to -28 against Central Michigan on Saturday.
That number is too high.
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There is no arguing that Penn State is miles better than the Chippewas, but this is too dangerous of an offense to be laying 28 points against. Central Michigan is averaging 36.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season, plus the Chips boast a 46 percent Success Rate and have scored 4.48 Points per Opportunity.
The engine of this offense is quarterback Daniel Richardson, who has thrown seven touchdown passes to just two interceptions. Behind Richardson, the Chippewas rank 32nd nationally in Passing Success Rate and are completing 4.6 passes of 20-plus yards per game.
And while CMU running back Lew Nichols III has struggled to match his output from 2021, when he led the nation with 1,848 yards rushing and 2,186 yards from scrimmage, we know he can light up defenses when he gets going.
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The CMU defense is a different story entirely, of course, as it has allowed 32 points per game and 5.3 yards per play so far this season. Central Michigan ranks 88th in Success Rate Allowed and is 92nd in Points Per Opportunity. In other words, this defense is bad enough that they’ve doomed this team to a 1-2 record despite averaging over 36 points per game on offense.
Central Michigan’s defense can be lit up by anybody — South Alabama put up a 38-spot on the Chips at Kelly/Shorts Stadium — so we can pretty safely assume that this Penn State offense will have its way moving the ball on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are averaging 40.7 points per game and 6.9 yards per play, and quarterback Sean Clifford is in good form with a 63.9 percent completion rate.
One piece of good news for Central Michigan backers is that the Penn State offense plays at a below-average pace, which should help to shorten the game a little. That’s helpful when you’re dealing with big spreads.
In the end, this handicap is all about the Chippewas’ offense. Richardson, Nichols III and company are an explosive bunch that has already put up 44 points at Oklahoma State this season for a back-door cover. Let’s hope for the same at Happy Valley on Saturday.
Take Central Michigan +28.