(CNN)The 2022 election date is four months ahead. Democrats are trying to maintain a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. They do so against the backdrop of the economic, which is seen in high inflation and poor conditions. This is a matter that governs the minds of voters.
However, the Democratic Party can resist political gravity and maintain power even if the unpopularJoe Bidenis in power.
The House answer is probably not, but the Senate answer, which is now evenly divided, is much less clear. And it's in the upper room where we start watching this week's political news.
Perhaps the biggest polling shock last week came from Georgia'sstate.A poll at the University of Quinnipiacfound that Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock was 10 points ahead of Republican Herschel Walker by 54% to 44%. Warnock's results were much better than thelong-term average of race(candidates increase by 1-2 points, depending on how the average is calculated).
Georgia races are in some of the fierce battle states of 2020, suggesting that the national environment should devoted Republicans, but ground polls do not. It suggests that there is no such thing. This indicates that the results of Senate control are not approaching the final decision.
The map of the 2022 Senate is quite small. Of the 35 seats in this cycle, we currently classify less than 10 seats as competitive. In other words, each camp has a chance of winning 10% or more. Some races can make a difference either way.
I look at state-level votes, national indicators (ie, general parliamentary ballots and presidential approval rates), and past presidential votesa simple data model. It is based on. Whether the election was in the middle, and expert race evaluation (for example, according toThe Cook Political Report).
After all, this model shows that it is most likely that the Republican Party will win one or two seats. That's enough for the majority, as Republicans need just a net profit of seats for control. Given the model's past mistakes, it suggests that Republicans have about 3 to 5 shots to regain the Senate. The reason the
model is so high in the Senate Democratic Party is simple compared to what is expected given the country's environment. State-level voting in the swing state. Recent public data is surprisingly powerful for Democrats such asArizona, Georgia,Nevada,New Hampshire,Pennsylvania
Looks like.
In fact, if we don't take into account the Republican lead in the general vote, Biden's low approval rate, and the tendency for opposition leads to grow during the midterm elections, Democrats will be upheld.
State-level voting averages at this point in the middle of the year are quite predictive of actual fall results since 2006 (mean difference is just over 6 points). Not much different from the state polling average for the last few weeks of the campaign (a little less than 5 pointsmean absolute error).
On the other hand, if you ignore the state vote and focus on the president's approval and expert evaluation of each seat, the Republicans are favored to win three Senate seats.
This estimate may be close to the truth. Senate Republicans can do even better and win five seats.
Admits that the Democratic Party's two-fifth chance of maintaining Senate control was a surprisingly high percentage. (Although the model is much slightly bullish against the Republicans than the percentage pumped by the much more complexFiveThirtyEight model)
After all, the model is in the past Has been trained for several years. The number of Senate close quarters that shook violently towards the Republicans at this point. Senate contests such as 2014Arkansas, 2016Indiana, 2018Missouri, 2020MontanaFloat in. According to polls, everything was pretty tight at this point, and when counting all the votes, Republican candidates won at least 5 points, if not more than 15 points.
However, this is the problem. Most of the races in which the Republicans were significantly ahead of the vote at this point wereplaces that were heavily inclined to the GOP in national elections
probably except in the state of Ohio (model is). All states with this year's major Senate elections were competitive in the 2020 presidential elections (although they do not consider the Senate elections to be very competitive).
So why is there a big difference between national indicators and state-level polling? The latter may be wrong.
But think about who or is likely to be a Republican candidate in places like Arizona (Blake Masters), Georgia (Walker), and Pennsylvania (Memetoz). Everything is considered a weak candidate, and the latter two have what most observers consider to be considerable luggage.
The question is whether the baggage is sufficient to keep them away from the Senate in an economy that such unpopular presidents take office and voters consider weak.
Republicans seem strong in the House of Representatives competition
One of the reasons why Senate Democrats are skeptical of the chances is what happens in the House of Representatives competition. Is it? The Republican Party has maintained its position on the general parliamentary ballot more than any midterm election at this pointsince the 1938 cycle
. There are many reasons why they think they will get it.
Macro indicators appear to be strong for Republicans. Beyond the two-point advantage of general ballots, Biden's approval rate is less than 40%. Such alow approval ratepresident has never lost at least four seats in a midterm election. The White House Party will minimize medium-term losses or profits if the president has an approval rate of over 60%.
Biden's low approval rate makes sense given that inflation and the economy are considered top priority. Consumer sentiment is low. The JuneUniversity of Michigan Consumer Psychology Indexreading was the lowest ever in 70 years of history. Expert evaluations of the
CookPoliticalReport andInsideElectionsHouse elections show the same thing. Based on a model of expert evaluation data dating back to 2000, House Democrats would lose about 25 seats on average if elections were held today. This will give the Republican Party about 240 seats in the next parliament.
You may be wondering why the House and Senate estimates are so different. Both are federal elections and are increasingly influenced by how voters feel about the president.
One explanation is that it's all a mirage. The two results can converge.
Second, the Democratic Party has a history of doing better in Senate races, even on unfriendly terrain. Democrats won Senate seats in the bright red Montana and West Virginiain 2018, but Democratic candidates in these states were unsuccessful.
There is a high correlation between feelings towards the president and how people vote, butin the Senate racehouse contest
{lower than 131)} The truth is that when there are only 35 races, one or two great or terrible candidates can sink the party's chances of winning the Senate. It may only happen this year.
However, with 435 races, it is unlikely that one or two great or terrible candidates will reduce the party's chances of winning the House of Representatives.
For your short encounter: Camping time.
Early Julyis a rare time when all school-aged children across the country are on summer vacation unless they attend summer school.
For some, summer may evoke memories of camping. But most of you don't have such memories.
A 2017 CBS News poll found that 56% of American adults have never been to camp. Another 13% went only to day camps. At some point less than one-third (29%) went to sleep camps.
I went to a sleepy camp and hated it. But I enjoyed the baseball camp.
Remaining Polls
American Pride Drop: Only 38% of Americans are very American in Gallup He said he was proud of. This is the lowest percentagesince Gallup began askingquestions earlier this century, and the country's pride continues to decline over the long term.
We are still optimistic: Pew Research Center pollreleased last month shows that 68% are confident in America's future. It shows that. This includes a majority of both Democrats (74%) and Republicans (62%).
Ignite fireworks: The day after July 4th, many of us may still be thinking of fireworks. According to the 2019 CBS News poll, 67% of Americans consider the personal use of fireworks to be legal. About one-fifth (21%) of all Americans bought illegal fireworks. Homer Simpsonwas not polled.