Does Dobbs energize Dem? Key blue primary turnout indicates weak response to SCOTUS's abortion decision

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In the first election after the Supreme Court's result overturned Law vs. Wade, Democratic participation in primaries on Tuesday in Illinois, New York and elsewhere was in the middle of the previous elections. It was lower than the election. November Democratic Opportunity

Preliminary elections in 2022 compared to the 2018 midterm elections where the Democratic Party swept the House of Representatives in response to the blue wave against former President Donald Trump There was poor participation from Democratic voters. That hasn't changed since the Supreme Court's decision on the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization on Friday. This overturned the 50-year precedent of recognizing the constitutional right to abortion, andreturned abortion restrictions to the states

"all states with one exception. I've seen that Democratic run rates have dropped or leveled off significantly, while Republican run rates in almost every state have risen significantly compared to 2018, "said a GOP polling consultant. One John Cubilon told Fox News Digital. 

The Democratic Party is raising funds, and if the party wins at least two seats in the Senate and does not retain those seats, abortion (and many other rights) ) Is at stake to voters. With a majority in the House of Representatives, leftist analysts say an abortion to the Republican Party in November will be a major factor. However, this message did not make a big chord with voters in the primary.

Democrats have countless Supreme Court Law vs. Wade decisions

In Illinois, more than 1.3 million people voted for the Democratic Governor's election in the mid-term cycle of 2018. On Tuesday, 821,200 people voted for the Governor's Democratic primary, counting an estimated 94% of ballots. This difference reflects a turnout drop of nearly 40%.

"When we were talking about the impact on the Roe v. Wade vote, we saw little impact on the June 28 vote," Cubilon told Fox News Digital. .. "That was the same story in early May when Dobbs' decision was leaked," Cubilon said in early voting in Georgia and North Carolina, but no more Democrats appeared. Republicans were still motivated to participate. }

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"First, the primary overall Republican is a more aggressive and vibrant season than the Democrats. That gap in enthusiasm is reflected in the voting data," said Tom Bevan, co-founder of RealClear Politics, Fox News Digital. Told to.

Other Factors As Bevan points out, "2018 was a big year for the Democrats. They were furious with Trump and here to play against [former Illinois Governor] Bruce Launer. Had a competitive primary. I'm against this year. [Incumbent JB Governor] Pritzker wasn't facing any real opposition. This could also be the cause of the drop in voting rates. According to Mr. Cubilon, this year's Republican support is "In the states that have held preliminary elections so far, the 2018 party vote was 53% democratic. This year 53% is Republican, so this swing There is. "

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A similar decline in votes was seen in the New York Governor's Democratic primary. In 2018, more than 1.5 million voters voted in the Democratic Governor's primary, reducing the number of voters on Tuesday to 863,238, an estimate of 95% of the votes counted. 

"This is what we saw from the beginning of the primary elections, and for Republicans, turnout is rising and they are working harder. This is all votes. Reflected in the data and seen on earth in all these races. "

Republicans are eager to regain the House and Senate, but" Democrats are frankly depressed. is". Bevan said.

If Roe's overthrow is a significant issue in the medium term, it could have boosted some turnout in the primary, which didn't happen this week and abortion is massive. It's also not clear that it was a problem since the leak of Dobbs' draft opinion. 

"Every time the Democrats thought there was a problem that could change the dynamics of elections, it didn't happen." Stated. "This decision, those who think Roe will radically change the dynamics of the election — I think they're kidding as long as we stay in the situation of 8% inflation and 6 gallons of gas. ""

Part of the reason Roe wasn't a major issue is because both parties are mostly struggling in their place — Democratic candidates have access to abortion. Is likely to be upheld, and Republicans may oppose it. But even in races where abortion can make a difference, it doesn't seem to be the case. Texas parliamentarian Henry Cuellar survived slightly in the primary with rival Jessica Cisneros, who attacked the enemy in an abortion position.

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In voting,abortion is more It has been suggested to be importantFor Americans more than in the last few years, it is still not the biggest concern for voters. 

"Something like the Roe v. Wade case is a lot of the current problem, as opposed to the much more widespread that affects all American families. Abortion is very It's a niche kind of problem. It may be a problem at a democratic hub, but not in many countries. "