World Cup futures prediction: Why this European power can win it all

We’ve arrived at the business end of the 2022 World Cup. Eight teams are remaining in the competition and only one of them — Morocco — is a surprise. 

Outside of the Atlas Lions, it’s a mishmash of the usual suspects. Brazil is holding strong as the tournament favorite at +170, while France, Argentina, England and Portugal are all hanging between +400 and +600. 

But there is one European power that is flying a bit under the radar as we get ready for the quarterfinals: The Netherlands.

World Cup prediction: Netherlands to win World Cup (14/1)

There are a couple of different ways to view the price on the Netherlands. 

On one hand, they’ve got a very tricky path to the final with a matchup against Argentina in the quarters and a likely showdown with Brazil in the semis. And should they somehow manage to get through that, Clockwork Oranje would then likely be an underdog against either France, England or Portugal. 

That’s a tough hill to climb.

But the other way to look at it is the difficult road for the Netherlands is creating some value in the betting market. The Dutch came into the tournament priced between 12/1 and 15/1 and are still sitting in that range, despite the fact that they’ve already progressed through to the quarterfinals. 

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Or look at this way, Portugal were a bigger long shot coming into the tournament and, because they play Morocco next, the Portuguese are +600 to win the tournament even though they’ll need to beat France or England next round. 

On the field, the Dutch are a team that may not have the truly elite talent that the other favorites have, but they’re a savvy team with a very strong spine. Nathan Ake and Virgil van Dijk are perhaps the best center-back pairings left in the tournament, Frenkie de Jong is a terrific midfield maestro, and the attack looks potent with Memphis Depay healthy and joining forces with Cody Gakpo. 

The pieces are all there for the Dutch, who deployed a brilliant wait-and-counter approach against the United States.

The Dutch are a versatile, savvy team that can play a number of different styles with aplomb. Still, they put together their best performance in a situation where they ceded possession to their opponents and sprung quick counters on the flanks to get balls into dangerous areas.

A similar strategy should work against Argentina, who are dangerous going forward but are vulnerable against counterattacks. Argentina has yet to look convincing in this World Cup, despite playing Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Poland and Australia.

In fact, you could argue that with the Netherlands now fully healthy, there really isn’t much of a difference between them and Argentina. Sure, La Albiceleste have Lionel Messi, but Clockwork Oranje has defenders who should be up to the task of containing him. 

Should the Netherlands pull the upset against Argentina, they’ll be a big underdog against Brazil. Still, Clockwork Oranje have the tools needed to give the Selecao a tough time, and their manager, Louis van Gaal, is an expert at setting his team up to take advantage of their opponent’s flaws.

With Brazil, Argentina, England, France and Portugal still in the field, it’s no surprise that the Netherlands are getting overlooked ahead of the quarterfinals, but savvy bettors should take advantage of that and back the Dutch to beat the odds and win their first World Cup.

World Cup futures pick: Netherlands to win World Cup (14/1, FanDuel)