Sat, 25 Jun 22 04:05:20 +0000

World leaders are facing crisis in every way. Putin is watching if they fail

(CNN)What will change in a year? When the G7 leaders last met12 months ago, some of them were the most prosperous in the world preparing to meet in Germany, a huge challenge that was almost unimaginable. It is influencing the democratic nations that are. When the President, Prime Minister, and Prime Ministerof the

G7met face-to-face, optimism emerged in the air at Carbis Bay's Cornish Beach Resort in 2021. } Covid-19 First time since the pandemic began.

Together, they "defeatCovid-19 and build better", "revitalize the economy", "protect our planet", I vowed to "strengthen the partnership."

But since then, global events have overtaken their best efforts and it is not clear this year whether they can be built on those goals. Russia's rapid invasion of Ukraine is a large and peculiar cloud, but other thunderclouds are also gathering.

In the coming days, leaders of Japan, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, the European Union, and the host country Germany will be in the quarantine of the luxuriousSchloss Elmau in Bavaria. Meet at. Retreat

Surrounded by tranquil valleys,spa resortsusually offer wealthy visitors a short chance to escape the world's worries. increase. Schloss Elmau cannot protect world leaders from the problems that gather on their horizon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin officials hint at nuclear Armageddon, China is becoming more and more assertive, a global food crisis is underway, oil prices soar, the world Economic slowdown and the crisis of living expenses are imminent. The desire for climate change is also confusing, and supply chain problems are hampering expectations of a return to normal after a pandemic.

In addition, Britain, the organizer of last year's summit, has threatened to break international law over the Brexit agreement with the EU. 36} Deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda-Despite the risks of shaking the world order, it helps construction and diminishes the already limited effects of the G7.

G7 leaders can look back with some satisfaction in the face of Russia's unprecedented aggression, but with the goal of "strengthening partnerships" set in Carbis Bay. As you can see, the scale of the oncoming crisis is still diminishing.

Putinnot entirely due to the upcoming storm, but his unjust war in Ukraine is closely linked to the many crises that are being brewed. .. Without it, the modifications required would be easier and less, and their effects would be less harmful.

Food crisis

The global food crisis is a good example. Some can be blamed on post-pandemic supply chain issues, butRussia's theft of Ukrainian wheatand the blockade of Ukrainian shipping in the Black SeaThat is,Ukrainian wheatand other agricultural products also play a major role in preventing them from reaching the international market.

According to the United Nations World Food Program (WFP), Ukraine normally supplies40% of wheat; according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Ukraine supplies16% of the world's corn exports and more than 40% of the world's sunflower oil.

The Global Rescue Commission (IRC), a global NGO, recently stated that "98% of Ukraine's grain and wheat exports remain blocked" and "the world's food. Prices have skyrocketed 41% and an additional 47 million people are projected to experience severe hunger this year. ”

Traditionally Ukraine'swheat and grain exportsGo to some of the poorest countries in the world: Ukraine, Lebanon, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, Eritria, Ethiopia.

To improve the situation, the G7 needs to retreat some of his war objectives to Putin, for example by ending the conflict or regaining Kieu's control over all Donbus. Yes-but not so far, showing that he's trying to do it.

Energy crisis threatens climate change efforts

Rising oil pricesis another by-product of the Putin War, It is complicated by the fact that it is oil. Production is not consistent with the increase in consumption after the pandemic. To fix this, the G7 needs to convince Russian OPEC + partners, including Saudi Arabia, to turn their backs on Putin and increase oil production.

Thetrip to Jedda by US President Joe Biden scheduled for mid-Julyand thetrip to Riad of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in March, The G7 is making progress in this, but there is no guarantee yet. Saudi Arabia, like Russia, has benefited significantly from soaring oil prices. Their interests are a pain for billions of people sticking to the bill to bring food to market.

Last year's G7 was all about the recovery of net zeros and green pandemics, but this year's scramble to Russia's departure from oil and gas by Western nations is the biggest single contributor to the crisis. Boosted the coal that is.

The G7 host Germany is now in crisis as Russia has reduced its gas supply to the country and armed it with energy for influence as feared-it's more coal now. It is said to start a thermal power plant. This is a U-turn from November last year, when Germany moved the deadline for phasing out coal to 2030, eight years earlier than planned. After Russia's invasion, Russia also promoted plans to move the electricity sector to 100% renewable energy by five years.

Johnson said last year that the world was unable to make a profit due to the phasing out of coal, but just this week suggested that Britain would resume mining fossil fuels for steelmaking. .. The country will also postpone plans to close more existing coal-fired power plants ahead of winter.

And to deal with the oil crisis, Biden is proposing a fuel tax exemption as pump prices soar.

Economic pressure

In Carbis Bay's goal of "better rebuilding," G7 countries are heading to the return of stuttering to pre-Covid normality. I didn't bother. Canceled flights andtravel turmoil acrossEuropeare opposed to rapid fixes since this summerIceberg size issuevisible It's just a hint.

China's claim to continue implementing the "Zero Corona" strategy not only returns to normal business, but also blocksworkers from the factory. Keep away, and in the worst case, stop production. Despite growing tensions with G7 countries, Chinashows no signs of being in line with the new postcovid norms.

Inflation has risen since the G7 countries, central banks have raised lending rates, and this year the global economic slowdown seems to be much more likely than last year. The wealthiest man in the world,Elon Musk, predicts that a recession in the United States is "unavoidable."

The problems overlap in a way that is somewhat reminiscent of the 2008 global recession.

At that time, the central bank rebounded and stopped economic corruption, but geopolitical influences spilled over the years.

The Arab Spring has shown that financial distress has exceeded its limits. In December 2010, when poor Tunisian street trader Mohamed Bouazizi ignited himself, he ignited a passion throughout the Middle East. Protesters went out to the streets, defeated two governments, and rattled more, and later regained some calm in the area later the following year.

It is not impossible that another global economic crisis could cause a wider wave of anxiety. In recent months,Sri Lankahas seen economic turmoil spill over into the streets. Price increases also causedPakistanandpopular unrestin Peru.

Putin Bank is shaking consensus

Russia deliberately takes advantage of what G7 leaders can do to avoid the season of despair May be limited by global cracks.

Just a few weeks before Putin's army invaded Ukraine, he went toChinaand met President Xi Jinping. The pair promised deeper cooperation, and despite warnings from G7 countries and others, Xi doubled its commitment and more

consensus on Taiwan'sfuture. 143} Now affirmativeAt the United Nations and the G20, two other well-funded global crisis firefighters are tattered. A vote at the UN Security Council shows that Russia and China vetoing will prevent condemnation of Putin's aggression. Meanwhile, the United States has proposed not to attend the G20 summit in Indonesia in November this year if Russia goes, and the United Kingdom has done the same.

China refuses to blame Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, andfights for what it considers to be a vested interest in world-leading democracy. It became a target. G7 countries-against them.

They know that the problems of developing countries affect the G7 countries before them, and most migrants choose to go to developed countries to protect their rights. It seems that the G7 is left to the weather, taking advantage of the global crisis. Only the coming storm.

But so far, the G7 is united, although relations with Russia are different.

France's Emmanuel Macron has spoken to Putin more than any other G7 leader over the past year, Russia insists that "should not be humiliated" and Biden Russia "fueled the global energy crisis," invaded Ukraine, and his defense secretary Lloyd Austin said Putin was "weakened"

What is clear is that this G7 has more vehicles than past meetings: success is not in stopping the crisis, but in mitigating it. Failure is exactly what Putin wants.