Two favorites to win the American League pennants start a four-game series Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros will face Jameson Taillon and the New York Yankees on Thursday night.
The Astros will be in the series 7.5 games ahead of the Yankees. Bombers, on the other hand, boasts an edge of 84 runs in terms of run difference. The Yankees are a favorite of -130 to win Thursday night, and if the line is closed there, it's the 11th time the Evil Empire has been closed below -130 this season.
It tells you a few things. Of course, the fact that the Yankees are over -130 in 58 out of 69 games is incredibly impressive. But current prices also show that the market is pretty bullish, even if the Astros are chasing the bombers quite a bit.
Astros vs. Yankees odds
odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: HOU +1.5 (-185) vs. NYY -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: HOU (+110) vs. NYY (-130)
Total: 8+ (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
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Astros vs. Yankees Prediction
1 The reason I'm a little skeptical of the Houston record is that the Astros have only played 17 games against teams with over .500 records. These numbers can be a bit distorted early in the season, but it's still pretty weird as all the other teams in MLB have played at least 25 games with clubs above the Mason-Dixon line. For example, the Yankees played 31 games (22-9) against over .500 teams.
The Thursday night pitching match is very interesting as it features two starters (Jameson Taillon and Framber Valdez) with a similar stats portfolio. Neither Taillon nor Valdes strike out, but avoiding the barrel and keeping the ball in the stadium is a great job. Valdez is particularly good at triggering ground balls, boasting the league's highest 67.5 GB% in 81 innings. Looking at it, other MLB pitchers aren't 57 GB% in the season.
Taillon's GB% isn't close to Valdes' GB%, but it's still strong, and the Yankees' right-handed is the best starter in the league's restricted walk so far this season.
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Despite the pitching matchup featuring two halers with an ERA of less than 3, the game totals 8 and the over is only -115. And while assisting Under in a game featuring two of the best attacks in MLB to play in a stadium that invites runs, these two starters limit damage and bend over from trouble. Is sensational.
In games like this, the overs often swell, so you can patiently see if this number continues to rise towards 8.5, but it seems that Under 8 is playable at the current price. is.
Astros vs. Yankees Pick
Under 8 years old (-105) — BetMGM