Opinion: Rental housing approvals are soaring, but completion is slow and, as many fear, could quickly deteriorate there is. And no one can live in an approved environment
Vancouver news release of the year Advertised that 2,956 exclusive rental homes have been approved for construction. This is "the best endorsement in decades". And a news release last yearheralded "historic approval numbers."
This is welcome, but approvals aren't the only important stat. The city's figures also show that rental housing completions are well behind approvals.
And looking ahead, both private sector and non-profit homebuilders say current and future conditions may mean that many recent approvals will never be completed. I am warning you.
City officials share their concerns. With chronically low rental vacancy rates and a projected population growth in the city, a shortage of rental properties could further exacerbate Vancouver's housing problem.
The city has approved 15,390 exclusive rental housing units between 2010 and 2021, according to Vancouver Development Permit figures provided to Postmedia News on request. Total cents approved.
This annual average of nearly 500 rental completions is more than double his number in the last decade. Between 2000 and 2009, the average number of rental completions in Vancouver was approximately 200 units per year.
However, it is far from its pre-condominium peak. From 1960 to 1969, the average number of rental completions in Vancouver was approximately 2,600 units per year.
Of course, units approved one day will not be built the next. Construction took years and there are many reasons for the delay. The numbers show that the number of completions started to increase a few years after approval was restored, which makes sense.
The concern here is which way the completion count goes.
For several reasons, including changes in government policy and the advent of condominium construction, Vancouver and other cities in Canada have been declining to build dedicated rental housing since the 1970s. Much less. In 2010 and 2011, Vancouver built Zero.
Condos can provide good homes for both owners and the secondary rental market. But purpose-built rental properties are far safer and more stable than rented condos and basement suites, and Vancouver planners have been creating programs over the past decade to encourage rental property construction. Raising rents was a main aim of Kennedy Stewart's 2018 campaignand could be a major issue for re-election this year.
The recent surge in rental approvals suggests that urban policies of the past decade have had the desired effect. Cynthia Jagger, principal at Goodman Commercials, a Vancouver-based real estate firm that specializes in rental buildings and development sites.
"But when I see the completion, I am very sad. …I should have built tens of thousands of units just to catch up.
In the last few years, with low interest rates and supportive government programs, "the stars have been really good for rent," she said. I'm a little scared of the future. … There are so many headwinds right now.
Many of these headwinds are beyond the city government's control - interest rates, global supply chain issues, local labor markets.
In 2016, Ottawa announced a program of low-cost construction loans for rental projects.Industry has hailed as essential to enabling recent developments
But this year's budget suggests the federal government Wesgroup Properties president Bo Jarvis said the program was "collapsed" as it proposed raising the requirements for
More affordable sounds like a good thing.
But Jarvis predicted that the change would mean that the private sector would not build these rental projects.
Low Cost Loans His program "had worked well in terms of converting condominium projects in transit into rentals. That's how good the show was. And that's what you want." It's a thing," Jarvis said. "But now, when construction costs and inflation are going through the roof, they're trying to adjust the program to the point of making everything unworkable. , the reason you see a tick mark in the approval is because the stars are aligned, and when you see the actual delivery being delayed, it's because the approval took a lot longer and the stars drift apart. because," Jarvis said. "Even if we get approval, there's no point in jumping straight into development. And we're at that stage now. The development project is shelved."
Some observers, perhaps rightly, are skeptical of such claims, saying that private sector developers simply complain because their big profit margins may be slightly diluted. I'm just saying
But even nonprofits need to make their projects financially viable . Simon Davie, CEO of Terra Housing and vice president of Lu'ma Development Management, a leading local nonprofit housing developer, said the climate looks harsh.
Rising construction costs are eroding the affordability of finished homes, Mr Davey said. This means less very affordable housing that everyone agrees is in great need.
"If I'm on the market side, in theory, if rents keep going up, or condo selling prices keep going up, I have a little headroom," Davey said. rice field. “But on the non-profit side, the returns are pretty fixed. I think you'll find that it won't go on," Davey said. "Some projects stop before they even start."
Unfortunately, Davey said, … There is a lot of pressure.
Such concerns are "justified and valid," said Dan Garrison, Vancouver's head of housing policy and regulation. “We have heard from many applicants, both private and not-for-profit, especially since rental projects are very sensitive to changes in interest rates, and have expressed concerns about the viability of proceeding with construction of some of those projects. Approved."
It's not wrong for City Hall to advertise a record approval. More approvals are good news for all who agree that Vancouver needs safer rental housing, as nothing can be completed without getting approvals first.
But approval is only part of the picture. People need affordable and suitable homes. And no one can live with approval.
dfumano@postmedia. com
twitter. com/fumano
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