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Hyunjin Kim and Kim・ Pyongyang
Seoul, South Korea (AP) — Seoul, the capital of North Korea It is preparing to deploy tactical nuclear weapons along the tense border with its rival South Korea, which is just a short drive from the 26 million people living in the area.
This looks like this to many experts who are paying close attention to this week's hottest North Korean military meeting. The potential for deployment just two months after the hidden threat of Prime Minister Kim Jong Un's preemptive use of nuclear weapons will be a major step forward for decades of standoffs on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea already has thousands of conventional weapons aimed at South Korea, where about 30,000 U.S. forces are stationed, but moving their short-range nuclear missiles to the border. Is probably the clearest sign Kim is trying to use. His nuclear weapons threaten South Korea and rob outside nuclear negotiators of concessions.
There is deep skepticism among observers that diplomacy can convince the country to abandon its nuclear weapons, along with North Korea's clear preparations for its first nuclear test in five years. Critics are calling on Seoul and Washington to develop a new approach to address North Korea's rapidly improving nuclear program.
Let's take a look at Kim's latest nuclear movement.
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Nuclear weapons on the border.
At a military conference ending Thursday, Kim and other senior officials confirmed additional "operational missions" and "modified operational plans" for troops near the South Korean border.
The dispatch of state media did not directly mention nuclear weapons. However, outside experts believe that North Korea's vague language indicates its intention to deploy a tactical nuclear weapons system positively. They have been partially in recent public comments from North Korea on such plans and numerous tests of short-range nuclear-capable missiles designed to attack South Korea's strategic facilities, including South Korea's US military base. We are evaluating based on this.
One big tip when North Korea test-fires a newly developed guided weapon that states it will improve the efficient operation of "tactical nuclear weapons" and increase the firepower of the front lines. Came in April. Line artillery unit. Later that month, Kim said he could use the nuclear program preemptively if provoked.
If a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea is now "much more likely to use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield," said Kim Jor-soo, an expert at the South Korean Military Research Institute. rice field. ..
Weapons that may be deployed at the border are more mobile and solid fuels that North Korea has piloted since the collapse of nuclear diplomacy with the United States in 2019. It is part of a short-range missile. According to North Korean foreign experts, these missiles may be able to evade South Korean and US missile defense, called "tactical" weapons, and are intended to be armed with low-yielding nuclear weapons. It suggests that.
North Korea is likely to have already acquired the technology to equip missiles with nuclear warheads, so tactical nuclear weapons could be deployed at any time. Former Secretary of State Kim Tae Woo said. Funded the Korean National Institute of Unification in Seoul.
However, some experts said that North Korea may not deploy nuclear-armed missiles because of the potential for problems in maintaining them.
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South Korea will respond by deploying nuclear weapons.
North Korea's clear impetus to deploy tactical nuclear weapons is one of Kim's recent vows to counter US "strength for strength" in the stagnation of nuclear diplomacy. It may be a department. It also comes when Washington and Seoul work to strengthen their combined defense capabilities to combat the North Korean nuclear threat.
South Korea's new conservative government, which took office last month, announced that it would work with the United States to expand the capabilities of conventional weapons and strengthen defense.
South Korea has avoided massive conflict since the end of the Korean War in 1950-53, but in recent years there have been deadly skirmishes and attacks that have killed dozens of people.
North Korea has a history of escalating threats and provocations when a new government is launched in South Korea or the United States to create a favorable environment for future negotiations. After that, the country often dialed down its rhetoric and launched a fascinating attack.
This may be the case this time.
But nuclear weapons at the forefront will complicate how South Korea responds to future North Korean provocations.
At a summit meeting with US President Joe Biden last month, new President Yoon Seok-yul was a long-range bomber and an aircraft carrier that responded to North Korea's provocation.
The Allies may also conduct the largest joint military training in a few years in August.
However, Yun said he would not pursue nuclear development or ask the United States to redeploy its nuclear weapons to South Korea as a deterrent to potential invasion by North Korea.
South Korean troops said they were closely monitoring North Korea's activities on possible moves to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, but did not give details.
Some experts say that the expansion of North Korea's tactical nuclear weapons and the pursuit of long-range missiles that can reach the US mainland have reduced the credibility of the US "nuclear umbrella." However, the Biden administration has repeatedly reaffirmed its US commitment. To protect South Korea with all military power.
There is also a need to reintroduce US nuclear weapons into South Korea.
"We should switch to a strategy to end North Korea's nuclear threat through nuclear balance," said Kim Tae Woo, a former director of the Korea Institute for National Unification. "The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons means that the North Korean nuclear threat is in front of us."
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What's next?
Tactical nuclear weapons were part of Kim Jong Un's five-year weapons development program announced last year. This year he took ballistic missile testing to an unprecedented pace, enhancing his country's ability to attack both the US mainland and South Korea.
For several weeks, US and South Korean officials have noticed signs of an imminent nuclear test by North Korea. This is the first time since 2017 and the seventh in total. Such tests may be part of an attempt to build a warhead that fits a tactical missile or a multi-warhead missile.
However, North Korea has not yet conducted such a test. Probably because of the ongoing opposition to the outbreak of COVID-19 from China, the last major ally and largest donor.
North Korea has so far rejected the Biden administration's offer for free negotiations and told Washington that it is a term used in connection with US-led economic sanctions and the United States, "hostile policy." First abandoned. Korean military exercises.
Experts say it is only a matter of time before North Korea conducts a nuclear test. This is seen as an important step in expanding nuclear weapons under Kim's five-year plan. Such tests could further complicate the push to resume nuclear diplomacy.
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