Terrible.
Be very afraid.
Because, let's be honest, election talk is starting again in Ottawa. Like, federal elections. Like, starting in November.
We know. has no meaning. Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh made a deal with the Weasel Axis in a smoke-free back room, a give or take, agreeing to hold no elections for another three years.
So no election is needed. And no one wants elections. But nevertheless, serious people are now seriously discussing one thing:
Don't hit your head against the wall. Please get off that shelf. When I think about it, it somehow makes sense.
Here are 10 reasons.
1. Pierre Polivre weakness. The Liberal Party and his NDP headquarters believe the Conservative MP in the Ottawa area will win the race for the party leadership. So they have been busy gathering materials to use against him Poilievre. He's his Whackadoodle, his fondness for WEF conspiracy theories, his penchant for bizarre bitcoin hoaxes, his slippery stance on abortion and social issues, his enduring distaste, and more. And Grits and Dippers want to use that material before it gets old. The reason is...
2. Poilievre has one great strength of his. It's the economy. He is the party's financial commentator and is credited with Bay Street. More worrisome to liberals, Poirivre is beginning to look like a prophet on the economic front. His criticism of the central bankers may have been correct, and the laser-like focus on Prime Minister Trudeau's failure to fight inflation bodes well for Team Blue. does not want to be a voting question. Because if you do, you will lose.
3. The economy is headed for a ditch. With the exception of jobs, all major economic indicators now look grim - and jobs will soon be worse than inflation has been in 40 years. Trudeau and his company must get ahead of what could be the worst recession since his 2008-09 global economic crisis.
4. Moreover, we may already be in recession. On Thursday, England's central bank raised interest rates to his 1.75%. Such rate hikes keep inflation in check, but they always run the risk of pushing Western economies into recession. Many economists quietly suggest that we may already be. Prime Minister Trudeau knows a recession won't get him re-elected.
5. Canadians are grumpy and getting grumpy. A flurry of polls shows a growing consensus that the country is headed in the wrong direction, and Trudeau liberals are unable to fully govern.In addition to the ongoing chaos at airports, passport and immigration officials The further turmoil in makes Grit look like a really bad manager.They need to change channels and the election is a great channel changer.
6. COVID is not going away and will get worse quickly. Fall temperatures will drop, colds and flu will return, and there will be more waves of COVID-19 as many people abandon their masks. But for Trudeau, the COVID surge is definitely good news. That would give him the perfect environment to claim that the Tories are a den of COVID-denying anti-virus conspiracy theorists.
7. Instability is Trudeau's friend. The ongoing Putin war in Ukraine. Trumpist Republicans come to power in US midterm elections. Protest return of the "Freedom" convoy. All of this, and more, suggests instability in Central Canada and the world, thus helping Trudeau. When you are about to fall into hell in a cage. It might be a mixed metaphor, but it might work.
8. Trudeau himself. Reigning more and more makes him bored. But one thing Trudeau loves and does well is campaigning. He never backs down from a fight. And he thinks he can beat Polyvre. So do liberals.
9. Minority governments are constantly planning elections. As my Sun colleague Brian Lilley pointed out on my Kinsellacast podcast, it would be crazy for Grits to be unprepared. What's more, they are united and the Conservatives are still in the middle of their toughest and most divisive leadership battle to date. Do not give them time to heal and reunite.
10. And finally: Election wins give Justin Trudeau what he craves most: a legacy. He may not win a majority again, but no prime minister has won four in a row since Sir John A. Macdonald.
Will there be an election? maybe not. Are you afraid of Justin Trudeau? he definitely isn't
But the rest of us should be afraid.
I am very afraid.
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