They say that age is just a number. But when it comes to handicapping the Hart Trophy, a player’s odds become increasingly dull with each lap around the rink of life.
In other words, the MVP has traditionally been a young man’s award.
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That might explain why Connor McDavid (13-to-5), Auston Matthews (5-to-1) and Leon Draisaitl (15-to-2), who are all 26 or younger, are the favourites to win the Hart Trophy this season. And why 35-year-old Sidney Crosby is considered a 33-to-1 long shot.
For someone who scored at a 100-point pace last season, this might be considered a little insulting. After all, Crosby is a two-time Hart Trophy winner who is only two years removed from finishing fourth in MVP voting and was a finalist for the award as recently as four years ago.
And now, we’re expected to believe that Jack Eichel, who has never been a top-5 scorer or even made the playoffs in his career, has better odds (28-to-1) of winning the Hart than Crosby?
The answer is yes. But it’s less a reflection on Eichel’s potential than it is on Crosby’s birth certificate.
That’s another way of saying that Sid the Kid isn’t so young anymore. The last time a player his age was named MVP was almost a century ago when a 35-year-old Eddie Shore won in 1938. In the last 25 years, no one in their 30s has won the award. Even Wayne Gretzky didn’t win past his 28th birthday.
Based on the betting odds released by BetOnline.ag, don’t expect that to change. A total of 15 players have better odds of winning the Hart than the future Hall of Fame forward. That obviously includes McDavid, Matthews and Draisaitl, who are the last three to win the award. But it also includes Cale Makar (14-to-1), who is 11 years younger than Crosby.
Not that Crosby, nor Alex Ovechkin (28-to-1), appear to be giving in to Father Time. Rather, with Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang re-signing with the Penguins in the summer, Crosby has his sights on winning a fourth championship — and whatever individual hardware comes along with it.
“I didn’t really worry about age when I was 18,” Crosby told reporters at the start of training camp. “I’m not going to start at 35.”
And why would he? While McDavid and Matthews may have dethroned Crosby as the best offensive players in the league, Crosby’s multiple championships and 200-foot game are still revered around the NHL.
“I’ve still got to go with Crosby,” Philadelphia’s Cam Atkinson said when asked who was the best in the league. “I think all-around he does it perfect. And he still puts up the points.”
Indeed, Crosby had 31 goals and 84 points in just 69 games last season. With two-time 40-goal scorer Jake Guentzel still riding shotgun on his wing, Crosby’s over-under for goals is set at 31.5 and his points at 81.5. He’ll have to hit the over on both — and probably by a large margin — for him to get some Hart Trophy love. For that to happen, he’ll have to stay healthy, which has been a struggle in recent years.
But based on his off-season workout partner, don’t rule out either one from happening.
“He’s as intense as ever, lately,” said Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, who has 10-to-1 odds of winning the Hart. “I think he’s at a new chapter in his career. He wants to play at an elite level and that’s like the new challenge for him, which is pretty cool.
“Him and Ovechkin being 18 years in and still dominating. Sid had such an amazing season last year. I thought he should have been maybe up for MVP as well. Obviously, the points and stuff weren’t as high, but everything he brings to the game — everything — I don’t think there’s another guy like him. He just turned 35, which is crazy. He still looks young to me. He’s flying. I think he’s going to have a great year.”
How great? Well, the last time Crosby won the Hart was in 2013-14, when he scored 36 goals and 104 points in 80 games. That was nine long years ago, back when MacKinnon was just a rookie and McDavid and Matthews had not yet been drafted.
In other words, it was a different league — if not era. These days, 104 points wouldn’t even get you inside the top-5. And so, if Crosby hopes to win the Hart, he might have to go about it differently.
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Forget about trying to match McDavid when it comes to points or Matthews when it comes to goals. For someone who had a plus-19 rating last season and is gaining more and more recognition for his two-way game, Crosby might have to also win the Selke Trophy as the best defensive forward — something he’s yet to do — in order to get some love for the Hart.
If so, it would be quite the payoff for a player who hasn’t exactly past his prime.
mtraikos@postmedia.com
twitter.com/Michael_Traikos
