Namibia
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Livestock marketing close to pre-pandemic levels

Agriculture realised marginal gains contributing 4% to overall economic growth during the second quarter of 2023 as the total livestock marketed recovered to 74,5% of the pre-pandemic peak of the second quarter of 2019.

According to Simonis Storm Securities Agri-monthly report for June 2023, agriculture and forestry rose 3,6% year-on-year, while fishing and fish processing grew 2,2% y/y to realise N$1,1 billion exports in may 2023, up from N$697 million in May 2022.

In the second quarter, total livestock marketed grew by 14,3% y/y mainly driven by sheep sales which rose 17,6% y/y, goats which rose 4,6% and cattle up by 8,5%.

“However, pigs that were marketed dropped 3,4% y/y, exerting downward pressure on the overall performance of the livestock subsector,” said Simonis.

According to the analysts, in June 2023, live exports recorded an increase of 11,6% y/y, compared to 6,0% y/y growth in May 2023.

This growth was driven by higher sheep exports up 11,5% y/y and goat exports rising 44.4% y/y, while cattle exports declined by 12,7% y/y, exerting downward pressure on the overall export figures.

Meanwhile fish exports value increased for the ninth consecutive month, seeing a 60,2% y/y increase in May 2023.

“The export bill rose from N$697 million in May 2022 to N$1,1 billion in May 2023, with most of Namibia’s fish exports going to Europe and SADC member states.

“The hake, monk and crab sub-sectors are expected to land their quota. Horse mackerel and lobster are faced with challenges, which might have a limited catch in the winter months,” said Simonis.

Fish inflation in June 2023 stood at 11,7%, lower than the 13,3% y/y recorded in May 2023 after reaching the highest annual rate of 18,2% y/y since October 2017.

“June’s inflation was driven by fresh, frozen and chilled fish prices rising 12,8% y/y, tinned fish prices up 5,2% y/y and dried, smoked and salted fish and seafood which shot 12,8% up y/y.

“Engagements with stakeholders in the fishing industry revealed that the driver of these increases are the high fuel prices, as these prices impact input prices such as ropes and nets used to catch fish,” said Simonis.

Citing industry sources, the analysts say Namibia is self-sufficient with local egg production, but dumping of cheap eggs by Zambian farmers remains a risk to the sector.

Zambian trucks claiming to deliver eggs to Walvis Bay for export end up selling the eggs illegally in Namibia.

The Poultry Association of Namibia has reportedly taken up this matter with the government and called on stricter border controls.

Production costs have increased by 22% over the last 12months, but sales continue on a downward trend as consumers cut down on expenditure in the current inflationary environment.

In horticulture, analysts say farm gate prices have outpaced retail prices in recent times, with a more substantial yearly increase. In June 2023, farm gate prices recorded a 20,9% y/y growth on average, while retail prices only saw a modest 11,1% y/y rise.

However, compared to the previous month, farm gate prices experienced a 6,8% month-on-month decline in May.

In contrast, retail prices surged by 10,9% m/m during the same period.

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