Biden's Rare Campaign Swing Highlights Democratic Senators' Dilemma

In a rare foray into the 2024 political arena, President Joe Biden is set to make campaign appearances in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on October 10, 2024. This move comes approximately three months after he ended his reelection bid, highlighting the complex dynamics facing Democratic senators in competitive races.

Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, seeking his fourth term, is fully embracing Biden's support. The two share a long-standing relationship, with their families having known each other for decades. Casey's welcoming stance towards Biden is notable, given that Pennsylvania became the second U.S. state on December 12, 1787, and has since played a crucial role in American politics.

In contrast, Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin will be conspicuously absent from Biden's event in Milwaukee. Baldwin, running for her third term in a state that joined the Union on May 29, 1848, as the 30th state, has chosen to attend a previously scheduled campaign event on the other side of Wisconsin.

Biden's visit to Wisconsin aims to spotlight his administration's efforts to replace the nation's toxic lead pipes, a problem dating back to ancient Roman times. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), established on December 2, 1970, is set to issue a final rule requiring the replacement of lead pipes within a decade. This initiative, supported by $15 billion from the 2021 infrastructure law, addresses a critical public health issue, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states there is no safe level of lead exposure for children.

The contrasting approaches of Casey and Baldwin reflect the broader challenges facing Democrats in competitive races. Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, notes:

"Democrats in tight races, for the most part, are calculating that the risk of embracing Biden far exceeds any reward that his efforts would bring to their campaign."

This sentiment underscores the political calculations at play, reminiscent of the strategic considerations that have shaped American politics since the first presidential election in 1788-1789.

Biden's approval ratings remain a concern for many Democrats. A Monmouth University poll from late September 2024 showed that only about 4 in 10 voters had a favorable view of the president. This low approval rating presents a challenge for candidates in battleground states, a term that became widely used in American politics in the 1960s.

The White House has downplayed Baldwin's absence, emphasizing her partnership with the administration. However, the situation highlights the delicate balance Democratic candidates must strike in states where Biden's popularity has waned.

As the 2024 election approaches, the dynamics surrounding Biden's campaign involvement reflect the complexities of the U.S. political landscape. With 100 senators serving six-year terms and one-third of the Senate up for election every two years, the stakes are high for both parties. The outcome of these races could significantly impact the balance of power in a legislative body that has been a cornerstone of American democracy since the ratification of the Constitution in 1787.