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China's provinces vow to meet GDP targets despite growth slump

BEIJING (BLOOMBERG) - Several Chinese provinces pledged to meet their growth goals for the year even as top leaders downplayed the national target of "around 5.5 per cent" after repeated Covid-19 outbreaks and a property market slump.

At least 10 local governments explicitly said they will strive to hit their gross domestic product targets, and at least another seven said they'll keep the goals in mind and do their best, an analysis of official reports published by the provinces shows. Several others pledged efforts to stabilise the economy.

Economic powerhouses like coastal province Guangdong, which had the biggest GDP of China's 31 regions last year, said it aims to expand its economy by "around 5.5 per cent" this year. Growth reached only 2 per cent in the first six months of the year, which implies the province's economy will need to expand around 9 per cent or more in the second half of the year to achieve the full-year goal, according to Bloomberg calculations.

The province said it should "earnestly shoulder the political responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy," according to a readout of a regular provincial government meeting in July. It will "go all out to push for a good economic growth in the third quarter and strive to achieve the annual economic development goals," it said.

None of China's provincial-level jurisdictions' economic growth rates in the first half of the year surpassed their respective full-year targets. The national economy grew just 2.5 per cent during the period, well below the annual goal of "around 5.5 per cent."

China's senior leaders have been de-emphasizing the significance of the GDP growth target in the face of mounting economic pressure. At a top-level Politburo meeting last month, they softened the tone on the growth target and concluded the country should achieve "the best outcome" possible for economic growth.

In the same week as the Politburo meeting, leaders told government officials the growth goal should serve as guidance rather than a hard target that must be hit, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Many provinces haven't given up on hitting their full-year targets, even some of the smallest economies like Ningxia and Shaanxi. But they also rarely acknowledged how difficult it would be to hit their goals -- one exception being the northeastern province of Liaoning, which concluded at a July meeting that it "must be soberly aware that it is very arduous to complete the annual goals and tasks set by the provincial people's congress."