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Total AFC East Wins: Odds and Picks for All Teams in the Division

We've already seen the total wins in NFC EastNow let's focus on AFC East. Weeks from newcomers reporting to the training camp. 

Buffalo Bills is a +650 favorite to win this year'sSuper BowlwithBetMGMand is the best combined with Tampa. I have won. Bay Buccaneers. Based on the sum of the wins, it's clear that odds makers consider this year's Buffalo to be a class in the AFC East, but overall, this is a highly competitive sector.

Total for AFC East


AFC East DistrictTopBottom
New York Jets5.5 / -1555.5 / + 130
Miami Dolphins8.5 / -1308.5 / +110
New England Patriots8.5 / -1208. 5 / +100
Buffalo Bills11.5 / -13011.5 / +110

Buffalo Bills to win the division at -190 The odds. Both Miami and New England are just behind with odds of +400 and Jet is a long shot of the board at +1800.

This preview applies the same logic used for the total wins in NFC East. That is, as a basic part of the analysis, focus on the strength of each team's schedule. We will also investigate changes to the roster during the off-season.

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The last thing to note is the AFC East schedule structure. Each team looks like this:

  • 6 games against opponents by division.
  • Four in-meeting games for AFC North.
  • Four mutual conference games for the NFC North area.
  • One match against NFC West, which has the same record of victory and defeat as the previous season.

New York Jets wins 5.5 or more (lean)

The Jets 2021 season was all about growth pain. In Robert Saleh's first year as head coach, he had to navigate the league with Zach Wilson's rookie quarterback.

And New York ended the year at 4-13 (.235), but their Pythagoras expectation is that they have a winning percentage. It suggests that it should have been close to 291. It's probably not an exaggeration to say that Jets is a bit better worth, as this is roughly equivalent to one additional win of the year.

For Jets to take full advantage of their opportunities, Wilson needs to improve the game in a sophomore campaign. One of the areas where he can grow is to release the ball faster.

According to the NFL's NextGenStats, Wilson was ranked 36th out of 38 quarterbacks in average release time. His total QBR (28.2) was also the second worst quarterback in the league. But it wasn't Wilson's fault, asPro Football Focusranked Jets' Receive Corps 29th out of 32 teams. 

Zach Wilson pass.
Getty Images

The future of Jets looks a little brighter than anything else Success Is considered an off-season. New York won two top 10 picks in the draft, picking cornerback source Gardner (Cincinnati) in 4th place and Ohio State University wide receiver Garrett Wilson in 10th place. Jets is a tight end C. J. He was also a free agent by signing Yuzoma (Bengals) and Tyler Conklin (Vikings).

Action Network Prediction Analyst Sean Koerner predicts Jets' schedule is the eighth most difficult on paper, but thinks GangGreen still has a way to win more than 5.5 games. increase. But I expect their cap to be at most 6 wins, so it will be tight. And given the slightest advantage, we promise nothing more than relying on more than 5.5 wins.

Miami Dolphins 8.5+ wins (2 units)

New Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is the coach of the year at +1600. A person who strongly considered the possibility of futures tickets. At some point before the season begins, I may still revisit helping him. McDaniel is widely regarded as a leader in attacks, and I think he is creative about how to place the human cheetah Tyreek Hill.

Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins.
Getty Images

See what McDaniel can get from him Will be interesting Quarterback to Atago Viroa. According to ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques, Tagovailoa is often praised for its accuracy (67.8 completion rate), but he tried thesecond-lowest pass at least 25 yards.

In June, Tagovailoa interviewedMuscle&Fitness Magazineand accused him of not having a downfield pass in his playcall, not his strength. did. If the dolphin situation this season goes wrong, these comments will definitely put a bullseye on his back.

But McDaniel thinks he's the perfect coach to hide the inefficiencies of quarterbacks like Tagovailoa, who doesn't necessarily have the strongest arms. After all, McDaniel spent five seasons in San Francisco and had a quarterback called Jimmy Garoppolo. He is not exactly known for the strength of his arm.

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Tagovailoa should benefit greatly from working with new wide receivers and head coaches. Also, given that the dolphins had already finished their nine-win season in 2021, it's unclear how the off-season additions will recede. This total seems short to me, so I'll try it again like myself. Great for two units.

New England Patriots 8.5 wins (pass)

There is no particular side to this total, so I took this opportunity to rant a little.

I don't know what to do with the Patriots. Especially if you are in a very difficult situation as to who runs the offensive and defensive units.

Some argue that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is simply trying to protect his coach from unnecessary criticism, but NBC's Mike Florio has an interesting theory. } He is trying to protect his son Stephen. His son was considered a de facto defense coordinator because he visibly called the bystander's play.

Bill Belichick.
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However, the Patriots won one of the last five games of the season. I did. Their only victory during that period was against the 3-14 Jaguar. And set the game aside, New England allowed 35 points per game in four defeats.

With the move of Josh McDaniels to the Raiders, Belichick will be able to avoid appointing an aggressive coordinator, and as a result, will be able to further protect his true intentions. However, it is clear that this strange practice began when the role of the boy in the team increased.

During my time as a D1 goalkeeper, I always remember the coach barking at me when I shouted general instructions to the defender in front of me, not to a particular player. increase.

He always answered "name and command". In other words, he was telling me to give someone a job and make them accountable.

As a result, if you don't know who is responsible for the Patriots' attack or defense, you don't want to be involved in this sum of wins.

11. Buffalo Bills with 5 or more wins (0.5 units)

Bills lost to Division Chiefs after seeing the best match in NFL history When I got angry. Playoff round. Buffalo's decision to run the clock to Kansas City without kicking the ball shortly is costly, as the chiefs moved the ball 44 yards in two plays and kicked a 49-yard field goal to conclude the match with three seconds remaining. I did.

By my power rating, Bills is the best team in the league and I like the chance to win the title. They have a new offensive coordinator this season as Brian Daboll has left the team for the job of head coach of the New York Giants.

However, even after promoting quarterback coach Ken Dorsey to the same position, Bills remains to some extent normal. Dorsey has already worked with Allen for three years as a quarterback coach. Unlike Dabol, Dorsey knows what it's like to play a position as a former NFL quarterback, All-American, and BCS National Champion at the Miami Hurricanes.

There is no doubt that Bills will continue to do his best to return to the Super Bowl. In the off-season, he signed a six-year contract with All-Pro pass rusher Von Miller (Rams). Miller teams up with tackles Tim Settle (Commanders), DaQuan Jones (Panthers) and Jordan Phillips (Cardinals) on the defensive side of the ball.

Buffalo has also added the defensive end Shaq Lawson (Miami), which was drafted in the first round of 2016.

Josh Allen.
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When it comes to attacks, Allen is a tight-end OJ Howard (Buccaneers). You should benefit from the signature. Duke Johnson (Browns) adds depth to the backfield, and Jamison Clouder (Jets) brings a valuable experience as a slot receiver.

One of the things that could fly under the radar is for Buffalo to sign Joe Brady as a new quarterback coach. Brady is widely known for Joe Burrow's success at the LSU National Championships. For some reason things didn't go well for Carolina's Brady with Sam Darnold. The truth is, good coaches still need to work with good players, and no one would argue that Allen is a better quarterback than Darnold.

11.5 wins may seem a bit high, but I don't want to step in front of this Bills train. Take over the half unit.