New York (CNN)The question everyone is asking: Are we about to enter a recession?
Americans are not optimistic about the state of the economy due to the downturn in the stock market, rising inflation and rising interest rates. Consumer sentiment has fallen to record lows, boosted by frustration with high prices, according to a University of Michigan survey released last week.
To clarify: At least not yet, we are in recession. But in the commodities-to-housing sector, signs of recession are everywhere. Here's what CNN Business reported last week:
Copper price
Copper is widely used in construction materials and faces increasing demand in an expanding economy. As the economy shrinks, that demand disappears.
Prices soared earlier this year when Russia, which accounts for 4% of the world's copper production, invaded Ukraine. Traders, worried about supply shortages, began hoarding metal. And now the price of copper is falling.
"Copper prices are just beginning to explain the fact that global growth is slowing," said Daniel Galli, director of product strategy at TD Securities, Julia Horowitz of CNN Business. Told to.
Purchase Management Index
The Fed's aggressive rate hikes are further weakening the mood.
"Business confidence is now at a level that usually signals a recession, increasing the risk of a recession," Williamson told Julia Horowitz of CNN Business. Told.
Consumer Psychology
The June index has fallen 14.4% since May as consumers become more cautious about inflation. About 79% of those consumers said they anticipate a bad time for next year's business situation. This is the highest level of that indicator since 2009.
Percentage of consumers blaming inflation for lowering living standards, 47 percent, just 1 percentage point lower than the all-time highs reached during the Great Depression against the June index I am.
"As it becomes more difficult to avoid price increases, consumers may feel compelled to adjust their consumption patterns, whether they are substituting products or accelerating purchases." Joanna Sue, director of consumer research, said. "The speed and intensity at which these adjustments are made will be important to the economic trajectory."
Gasoline prices
Bad news: That's because traders are betting on recession, said Allison Morrow of CNN Business.
US drivers felt pain in the pump and began pulling back gas this spring, reducing demand and lowering prices.
Demand recessions can provide temporary relief, butit also presents broader economic concerns.
"Market behavior this morning is full of concerns about a recession," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of the Bleakley Advisory Group earlier this week. He sets the odds of this year's recession at 99% because "100% is nothing".
Housing slump
Prices soared, many Americans couldn't get home ownership, and mortgage rates soared after the FRB's rate hikes and bond yields soared.
However, homebuilder Lennar, whose market share fell by nearly 45% this year, reported better earnings than Wednesday's expectations and a 4% increase in new home orders.
However, Renner's CEO remained cautious, saying in the company's second-quarter earnings announcement that it was a "complex moment in the market."
Despite the slowdown in the housing market, experts expect it not to spread to the economy like the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008.
"Banks are currently in much better shape and are not lending to untrustworthy or untrustworthy people," said Michael Sheldon, Chief Investment Officer of RDM Financial Group at Hightower, CNN Business. Told Paul. R. Ramonica. "In the event of a recession, the impact on housing can be minor. There aren't as many imbalances as before."
